| Influencing factors | Contribution to risk of migration | Approximate level of predictability |
| Negative impacts | ||
| Population pressure | High | High |
| Land degradation | High | Significant |
| Natural climatic variability | High | Moderate |
| Human-induced climate change... | Significant | Moderate |
| and its effects on water availability | Significant | Moderate |
| Loss of agricultural land | Significant | Moderate |
| Chemical and biotic stresses | Moderate | Moderate |
| Feedback processes (see Figure 1) | Low | Low |
| Positive impacts | ||
| Increased fertilizer use | High | Significant |
| Agricultural land gain by deforestation and reserve use | Significant | Moderate |
| Management improvements, new technologies, etc | Significant | Moderate |
| Increase of irrigation | Moderate | Moderate |
| Biotechnology | Moderate | Low |
| Other factors | ||
| Socio-economic | Significant | Moderate |
| Political | Moderate | Low |
Table 3: Rankings of the relative importance of the factors having an influence on food production, and thereby on the risk of large-scale migration, and the level of predictability of these factors.