Tiempo Climate Newswatch

Ten thousand American scientists have signed a statement protesting political interference in the scientific process. Organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists, the statement has the backing of 52 Nobel Laureates. "It's very difficult to make good public policy without good science, and it's even harder to make good public policy with bad science," said Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security. "In the last several years, we've seen an increase in both the misuse of science and I would say an increase of bad science in a number of very important issues; for example, in global climate change, international peace and security, and water resources."

The Union of Concerned Scientists has compiled an 'A to Z' guide that documents recent allegations of censorship and political interference in federal science. In the area of climate change, the guide cites a case uncovered in 2003 when the Bush administration tried to make a series of changes to a draft report from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA report stated that human activity is contributing significantly to climate change. According to an internal EPA memo, White House officials demanded so many qualifying words such as "potentially" and "may" that the result would have been to insert "uncertainty... where there is essentially none."

"It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone intensity will occur if the climate continues to warm" is the consensus view of an international group of 125 experts. The group also described an "increase in precipitation associated with [tropical cyclone] systems" in a warmer climate as a "robust result" of recent research. Meeting in Costa Rica in November 2006 at the 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, organized by the World Meteorological Organization, the group underlined the complexities that affect long-term prediction of cyclone characteristics and called for more research on the link between climate change and tropical cyclone intensity as many important issues remain unresolved. Nevertheless, the closing words of the workshop statement observe that "despite the diversity of research opinions on this issue it is agreed that if there has been a recent increase in tropical cyclone activity that is largely anthropogenic in origin, then humanity is faced with a substantial and unanticipated threat."

The scientists stress that "no individual events in [recent] years can be attributed directly to the recent warming of the global oceans." They conclude that the continuous increase in economic damage and disruption caused by tropical cyclones in recent decades is largely the result of increasing coastal populations, increasing insured values in coastal areas and, possibly, rising sensitivity of modern societies to infrastructure disruption. The workshop statement warns that "for developing countries large loss of human life will continue as the increasing coastal populations are a result of population growth and social factors that are not easily countered."

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is launching an initiative, ClimDev Africa, aimed at providing vital climate information for development needs in Africa. The ten-year programme, which will be African-led, will cost about US$200 million. "African countries and people are subject to severe drought, flooding, food shortages and disease. And, most of these natural disasters are related to climate. Africa is also lagging [behind] the rest of the world in terms of development," says GCOS official William Westermeyer. The aim of the initiative is to improve climate monitoring and risk management.

The strategy will be to provide the climate information needed to manage more effectively crises, such as severe drought and flooding, linked to climate change. "With regard to health, malaria is a very big thing. And, it turns out with better climate information, particularly knowing about things like the onset of a new El Niño for example, you can predict where malaria outbreaks are likely to occur several months in advance. With better information, that can help you prepare those areas to avoid the worst impacts," Westermeyer observes. GCOS is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization.

India claims that the rich countries of the world have not delivered on promises to transfer technology to combat global warming. "We had hoped for much larger foreign direct investment. We are disappointed by the scale of foreign technology under the Clean Development Mechanism," said Prodipto Ghosh at the Ministry of Forests and Environment. "Adaptation will require tens of billions of dollars a year," he says. The Indian government has set up an adaptation fund and one expert reckons that the nation is ahead of many developing countries in managing the climate problem. "Adaptation is the same as development as it is basically about improving people's ability to deal with adversity whether it be adverse weather conditions or poverty," comments Bilal Rahill, South Asia specialist with the World Bank. "India has a number of development programmes that have inherent, built-in adaptation aspects."

India's carbon emissions rose by a third between 1992 and 2002, according to the World Bank's Little Green Data Book. Yet, says environment minister A Raja, "India is very little in terms of emissions and we are not the biggest polluters when compared to the developed nations." "We are not doing any harm to the entire world," he continued. "We are, in spite of the developmental activities taking place in this country, very categorical that our emissions are below three per cent [of global emissions] which is within limits." Nevertheless, action is needed say environmentalists. "We understand that the country is on a development path and that India still needs to provide energy to much of its population," said K Srinivas of Greenpeace India. "But that doesn't mean we need to rely on primary sources of energy like coal to do that. There are so many other sources of renewable energy which we should be focusing more on."

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global carbon emissions could rise by 55 per cent by 2030 unless "urgent" action is taken. Developing countries would account for three-quarters of the increase, passing the OECD nations in terms of total emissions by as early as 2012. "This increase [from developing countries] is faster than that of their share in energy demand, because their incremental energy use is more carbon-intensive than that of the OECD and transitional economies. In general, they use more coal and less gas," states the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook.

China may overtake the United States as the world's largest emitter before 2010, according to the IEA. The prediction is "not impossible," according to Chen Ying of the Research Centre for Sustainable Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. But "to put a penalty on China would be unfair," says Fatih Birol, who is chief economist at the IEA. "After all, coal fuelled the industrial revolution in the United Kingdom." IEA executive director Claude Mandil called on governments to adopt policies that would move the world onto a sustainable energy path. "The good news," he said, "is that these policies are very cost-effective. There are additional upfront costs involved, but they are quickly outweighed by savings in fuel expenditures. And the extra investment by consumers is less than the reduction in investment in energy-supply infrastructure. Demand-side investments in more efficient electrical goods are particularly economic; on average, an additional US$1 invested in more efficient electrical equipment and appliances avoids more than US$2 in investment in power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure."

The Brazilian state of Pará has designated an area the size of England as a conservation area. "If any tropical rainforest on Earth remains intact a century from now, it will be this portion of northern Amazonia," says Russell Mittermeier of Conservation International. "The region has more undisturbed rainforest than anywhere else, and the new protected areas being created by Pará State represent a historic step toward ensuring that they continue to conserve the region's rich biodiversity, due in large part to the governor's visionary achievement."

The protected region will be 16.4 million hectares in extent. With neighbouring protected areas in Brazil, Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana, it forms a green corridor known as the Guyana Shield, which contains some of the world's richest habitats. About one third of the area will be totally protected against any agricultural, industrial or domestic development. "Traditional communities will be living in these areas... They will be allowed to use the forest in a sustainable way but this will not involve the clear-cutting of the forest," said state governor Simão Jatene. Road-building, logging, agriculture, mining and any other destructive, non-sustainable activity would be banned or strictly controlled. "If anyone tries to do this illegally, it will be detected by satellites," he warned.

The European Commission (EC) is demanding deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions than currently proposed by member states. Of the ten plans submitted for approval, only the United Kingdom's proposal was passed. Overall, the EC called for further reductions totalling seven per cent. "I think that with today's decisions the European Union will affirm its leadership role in fighting climate change and also our strong commitment to achieving the Kyoto Protocol targets," said environment commissioner Stavros Dimas. The European Union needs to recover from the impact of the first phase of its emissions trading scheme, which saw carbon prices crash after member states allocated more emissions permits than needed to industry.

Reaction to the decision was mixed. The German government described the action as "totally unacceptable" and vowed to challenge the ruling. "It's slightly stricter than I'd expected," commented Mats Ahl of German utility RWE. Michael Grubb of the Carbon Trust in the United Kingdom welcomed the move, saying that the European Union has "done a lot to create a level playing field." He commended the decision to cut back on only those plans where there were clear grounds for doing so, avoiding the "soft option of trying to cut everyone back by a similar amount." Germany's request to free new industrial installations from emissions restrictions would, he argued, have given free emissions rights to new coal power stations.

More than fifty Native American tribes met at the first Tribal Lands Climate Conference December 5-6th near the Lower Colorado River. "The issues and challenges caused by climate change being discussed during the Conference currently affect, and will continue to affect, all tribes on a global scale. This forum brings tribes together to address the issues and challenges, in efforts to one day find solutions. Native Americans can provide key inspiration regarding global warming and its impact on our world, unite broad stakeholder support, and demonstrate actions that alleviate global warming impacts," said Garrit Voggesser of the National Wildlife Federation's Tribal Lands Conservation Program. The meeting was hosted by the Cocopah Indian Tribe and National Wildlife Federation.

All participants reported changes in climate and wildlife that they saw as part of a long-term trend. "We basically have two seasons now," said Robert Gomez of the Taos Pueblo Environmental Office in northern New Mexico. "Hot and dry, and cold and dry." As wildlife migrate in response to climate trends, "we don't have the legal right to follow them," said Terry Williams, fisheries and natural resources commissioner for the Tulalip Tribes. If nothing is done, "within the next 20 to 25 years, our culture will be terminated, because the necessary species will be gone." The conference considered response options. For example, the Nez Perce Tribe in Idaho is growing trees for carbon sequestration. In Alaska, indigenous high school students launched a climate change awareness campaign, which prompted the state legislature to create a climate change commission. The campaign also resulted in the signing of a climate pact by the mayors of Anchorage and North Pole and several tribal resolutions on global warming.

A study of the link between ocean temperature and phytoplankton production suggests that higher temperatures will mean adverse effects on the entire oceanic food web as phytoplankton productivity drops. Analysis of recent satellite data shows "this very tight coupling between production and climate," said lead author Michael Behrenfeld of Oregon State University in the United States. Phytoplankton need nutrients, such as nitrogen, phosphates and iron, from colder water lying beneath the ocean surface, he explained. As the surface warms, these nutrients become less accessible. As less food is produced by phytoplankton the oceans get bluer in colour.

The European Alps are "currently experiencing the warmest period... in 1,300 years," reports Reinhard Böhm of Austria's Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics. Warm weather during this past autumn and lack of snow has raised concerns in Austrian ski resorts. Wilma Himmelfreundpointner of the St. Anton Tourist Office says that snow machines cannot produce all the snow that is needed when temperatures and sunshine levels are high. In Switzerland, "the start in the skiing season was certainly not a success," said Daniela Baer for Switzerland Tourism. "But on the other hand we had an extremely strong September and October. The summer season was just extended." Over Europe as a whole, autumn 2006 was the warmest on record, which extends back to the 18th century.

Raising cattle contributes more to global warming than transportation, according to a report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). "Livestock are one of the most significant contributors to today’s most serious environmental problems," commented lead author Henning Steinfeld. "Urgent action is required to remedy the situation." The study estimates that cattle production generates 9 per cent of anthropogenic global carbon dioxide emissions, 65 per cent of nitrous oxide emissions and 37 per cent of methane emissions. Global meat production is expected to double by 2050.

The report concludes that "this high level of emissions opens up large opportunities for climate change mitigation through livestock actions." Proposals include increasing efficiency in livestock and feedcrop production, which would reduce emissions from deforestation and pasture degradation, restoring historical losses of soil carbon through conservation tillage, cover crops, agroforestry and other measures including restoration of desertified pastures, improved diets to reduce enteric fermentation, improved manure management and biogas production. It is suggested that the Clean Development Mechanism be used to finance the spread of biogas and silvopastoral initiatives and, as methodologies emerge, other livestock-related options such as soil carbon sequestration through rehabilitation of degraded pastures.

Atmospheric levels of methane have stabilized, according to an analysis from the University of California at Irvine, in the United States. After rising by over one per cent a year through 1978 to 1987, growth rates slowed over subsequent years, averaging close to zero over the period December 1998 to December 2005. "What we are seeing now is spurts of methane with very little net change," says Sherwood Rowland of the University of California. The variability from year to year appears related to short-lived events that perturb the atmospheric chemistry, such as volcanic eruptions or large fires .

"The scientific community agrees that the pause is source-driven rather than sink-driven, that is, caused by decreasing emissions of methane," says research leader Isobel Simpson, but "I don't believe we have reached a consensus on which sources have decreased and by how much." The halt in the trend may be related to the economic slow-down in the nations of the former Soviet Union, which has reduced energy use. Repair of leaky oil and gas lines and storage units or a decrease in emissions from coal mining and rice paddies may have played a part. Rowland says that the development is unexpected "because there isn’t much in the way of programmes to reduce methane emissions." "We will gain some ground on global warming if methane is not as large a contributor in the future as it has been in the past century,", he says. But he goes on to warns against complacency given limited understanding of just what has caused the trend to halt.

Typhoon Durian struck the Philippines Thursday November 30th, with winds gusting up to 265km per hour. More than 830,000 people were affected as floodwater engulfed towns and triggered mudslides. Over 1000 lives were lost. The province of Albay was worst hit. President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo declared a state of national calamity, which permits funds to be released more quickly to support rescue efforts. "We are trying as much as possible to broaden our reach," she said.

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) sent emergency health supplies for 10,000 people for three months in Albay province, with additional medicines, food and shelter supplies to follow. UNICEF is appealing for US$310,000 to address the health needs of evacuees, improve damaged water and sanitation facilities, provide "school in a box" kits and establish child-friendly spaces for traumatized children.

The 2006 Climate Change Conference, held in Nairobi, Kenya, ended 17th November with a range of decisions supporting developing country efforts to respond to the threat of climate change. The Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation was agreed, as was management of the Adaptation Fund. The meeting also set the rules for the Special Climate Change Fund. "The conference has delivered on its promise to support the needs of developing countries," said Conference President and Kenyan Minister for Natural Resources and the Environment Kivutha Kibwana. "The spirit of Nairobi has been truly remarkable."

There was criticism of the level of financial support currently committed. "The Adaptation Fund... may raise at most 300 million Euros for the period between 2008 and 2012. But the World Bank predicts that the most vulnerable developing countries would actually need one hundred times this amount, annually," commented Jan Kowalzig of Friends of the Earth Europe. "Rich countries are largely responsible for the climate crisis. As a matter of justice, they must now commit to far greater contributions to this fund." There remained concern that no deadline had been set for resolution of a post-2012 agreement to follow on from the Kyoto Protocol. "While progress was made in Nairobi, our leaders must recognize that scientific evidence and public opinion demands much stronger action than what was agreed," said Hans Verolme of WWF.

China is to build one the world's largest solar power stations. The 100MW facility will be located near Dunhuang, in Gansu province in northwest China. "Covering a total area of 31,200 square metres, Dunhuang boasts 3,362 hours of sunshine every year and is hailed as a prime area for solar energy development, with its easy access to electricity transmission and communications," according to the Xinhua news agency. The project is part of the China Desert Photoelectricity Project, supported by the National Development Reform Commission, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IEECAS) and WWF. According to Gan Lin of WWF, desert areas such as the Hexi Corridor in Gansu province and the Taklimakan Desert in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region are suitable for large solar projects. It has been estimated that exploiting one per cent of that desert area to generate solar power would have covered China's total electricity consumption in 2003.

Currently, 70 per cent of China's energy is derived from fossil fuel combustion and the nation is the world's second largest consumer of oil. China's proven coal reserve will be exhausted in 81 years, petroleum in 15 years and natural gas in 30 years at the current development rate, according to an expert at IEECAS. By 2020, 15 per cent of the nations' energy needs must be met from renewable sources. "In China, introducing renewables is good industrial development strategy, it's not part of the climate-change argument," comments Eric Martinot of the Worldwatch Institute in Washington DC in the United States. "Local air pollution is playing a big factor in driving many of these arguments, as ordinary people don't accept this kind of pollution." According to the State Environment Protection Agency, pollution cost China three per cent of its GDP - £34 billion - in 2004. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi, speaker-elect of the United States House of Representatives, has written an open letter to Chinese President Hu Jintao, proposing a partnership on climate change based on a New Shanghai Communique. The letter, which can be read as somewhat patronizing in tone, may not be well-received as Pelosi has been a vocal critic of China's record on trade and human rights for some decades.

Some bird populations have already declined by up to 90 per cent, according to a report on the impact of climate change on bird species from conservation group WWF. "Robust scientific evidence shows that climate change is now affecting birds’ behaviour," according to co-author Karl Mallon of Climate Risk, in Sydney, Australia. "We are seeing migratory birds failing to migrate, and climate change pushing increasing numbers of birds out of synchrony with key elements of their ecosystems," he continued. "Birds have long been used as indicators of environmental change, and with this report we see they are the quintessential 'canaries in the coal mine' when it comes to climate change," said WWF's Hans Verolme.

Migratory birds and sea birds are particularly at risk. The report cites the unprecedented breeding crash of North Sea sea birds in 2004 as an example of acute vulnerability to environmental change. Common guillemots, Arctic skuas, great skuas, kittiwakes, Arctic terns and other sea birds in Shetland and Orkney colonies were affected by a shortage of their prey, sandeels. The shortage is believed to have been caused by ocean warming. The report calls for a major change in bird conservation as the effectiveness of current approaches based on protected areas is weakened by global warming.

"Instead of being economically defensive, let us start being more politically courageous," said Kofi Annan, secretary-general of the United Nations, addressing the 2006 Climate Change Conference in Nairobi, Kenya. The conference "must send a clear, credible signal that the world’s political leaders take climate change seriously," he continued. "The question is not whether climate change is happening, but whether, in the face of this emergency, we ourselves can change fast enough." He attacked those critical of the case for action. "A few diehard sceptics continue trying to sow doubt. They should be seen for what they are: out of step, out of arguments and out of time." Calling on the governments of the industrialized nations to "do much more to bring their emissions down," he referred to a "frightening lack of leadership" in meeting the challenge of climate change. Finally, he introduced the new Nairobi Framework.

The Nairobi Framework has been assembled by six United Nations agencies to help developing nations, particularly in Africa, obtain increased funding to promote clean energy technology, such as wind and hydropower, and manage the climate threat. As part of the initiative, the United Nations Development Programme and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) have set up a partnership to build country capacity to take part in carbon finance funds and to decrease vulnerability to climate change. "Investments in roads, railways, hospitals, fisheries and power systems are underway across the sub-Saharan African region but few if any are being planned with future climatic impacts in mind," said Achim Steiner, UNEP head. "Some of these projects, for example a new dam, may be increasingly vulnerable as a result of more intense droughts whereas others - for example a coastal road scheme - may be at risk from sea level rise," he continued. "We need in-depth studies and national adaptation plans but we also need a rapid response service so that a minister, faced with a planning application, can pick up the phone and have ‘climate proofing’ expertise on his or her doorstep within a matter of days."

The 2006 Climate Change Conference re-affirmed the goal of agreeing an extension to the Kyoto Protocol for the post-2012 period. This would be achieved "as early as possible and in time to ensure that there is no gap" before the new agreement comes into force. No deadline was set, disappointing some observers. "Ministers are simply not reflecting the urgency which is being felt in the real world," charged Catherine Pearce of Friends of the Earth UK. "We are still not seeing the bold leadership which is needed here." There has been discussion of increasing flexibility within the post-2012 agreement in order to draw in Kyoto outsiders such as the United States and major developing nations such as China and India. "We have to make it attractive for countries to take part," commented Yvo de Boer, head of the Climate Change Secretariat. "I see people looking at a larger menu of options and I find that very constructive." Finally, conference participants agreed a minimal review of existing measures under the Kyoto Protocol, to take place in 2008. Developing countries had been concerned that the review might result in demands that they adopt binding emissions targets.

An international team of researchers has concluded that the world's forests may have reached a "turning point." "Forest area and biomass are still being lost in such important countries as Brazil and Indonesia, but an increasing number of nations show gains," the report states. The Forest Identity report shows a rise in biomass and carbon storage capacity over the past 15 years in 22 of the 50 countries studied. "This great reversal in land use could stop the styling of a 'Skinhead Earth' and begin a great restoration of the landscape by 2050, expanding the global forest by ten per cent - about 300 million hectares, the area of India," said Jesse Ausubel at Rockefeller University in New York, United States.

The report cites government policy, in forest protection and the preservation of farmland, as a major factor in reducing deforestation trends. In Europe, timber imports, sustainable forestry, energy technology, farm technology and migration from rural to urban areas have played a part. Pekka Kauppi at the University of Helsinki, Finland, comments that "without depopulation or impoverishment, increasing numbers of countries are experiencing transitions in forest area and density. While complacency would be misplaced, our insights provide grounds for optimism about the prospects for returning forests."

A new report from the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change concludes that the vulnerability of the African continent to climate change is even greater than previously estimated. Thirty per cent of Africa's coastal infrastructure could be inundated and between 25 and 40 per cent of species' habitats lost by 2085. By that time, cereal crop yields could have dropped by up to five per cent, with yields of subsistence crops also declining. "We are already seeing climate-related changes in my country," said lead author Balgis Osman Elasha of the Climate Change Unit in the Sudanese Ministry of the Environment. "The Gum Arabic belt, an economically important crop, has shifted southwards below latitude 14 degrees north and the rains which used to occur from mid June to the end of August now start in mid July until the end of September with important ramifications for agriculture and livelihoods."

Responding to the report, Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme, said that "climate change is underway and the international community must respond by offering well targeted assistance to those countries in the front-line which are facing increasing impacts such as extreme droughts and floods and threats to infrastructure from phenomena like rising sea levels. Part of the action, part of the adaptation response and part of this responsibility to Africa, must include significant improvements in Africa’s climate and weather monitoring capabilities." Michel Jarraud, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization observed that "Africa is the largest of all tropical landmasses and, at 30 million square km, is about a fifth of the world’s total land area. Yet the climate observing system in Africa is in a far worse and deteriorating state than that of any other continent."

"Climate change is rapidly emerging as one of the most serious threats that humanity may ever face," said Kenyan environment minister Kivutha Kibwana, president of the 2006 United Nations Climate Change Conference, opening the meeting. "We face a genuine danger that recent gains in poverty reduction will be thrown into reverse in coming decades, particularly for the poorest communities on the continent of Africa," he continued. The first week of the conference saw disagreement between delegates on the deadline for agreeing a post-Kyoto accord, with targets ranging from the end of 2008, through 2009 to 2010. The fact the United States President George W Bush steps down in January 2009 may prove a critical factor.

"I think it's important to the market that an agreement is reached without delay," said Ron Levi of brokers GFI. "Frustration is justified," commented Yvo de Boer, head of the Climate Change Secretariat. "It's going slowly. The problem is that countries' interests conflict in a number of areas." Harlan Watson, United States climate negotiator, said that he did not see any change in policy as a result of the mid-term elections that saw the Republican Party lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Australia won the initial Fossil of the Day award from the Climate Action Network by comparing Australian vulnerability to climate change to that of Africa and the Pacific island nations.

A new report, Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa, finds that small, rain-fed crop and livestock subsistence farming systems in arid and semi-arid areas are the communities most vulnerable to climate change in Africa. Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi and large parts of Niger and Chad are particularly at risk. "While a peasant farmer may not understand climate change, he appreciates that it is increasingly becoming difficult to time the planting seasons as rainfall is unpredictable," commented Beneah Daniel Odhiambo, from Moi University, Eldoret, Kenya. "As a result, there is high crop failure resulting in famine in many parts of Africa. Prolonged seasons of drought also cause the migration of people to other areas and is a potential source of conflict between communities competing for scarce resources."

"People will experience great problems unless there is investment in adaptation options," warns Mario Herrero of the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Kenya, the institution that led the project. The report concludes that Africa must learn to adapt to the world's changing climate if lives and livelihoods are to be saved. "These findings present an immense challenge," said ILRI's Tom Owiyo. "Climate change presents a global ethical challenge as well as a development, scientific and organizational challenge in Africa."

Two new reports define management approaches that could help two vulnerable ecosystems, mangroves and coral reefs, cope with climate change and other stresses. Published by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) and the Nature Conservancy, the reports "give a clear positive message: while we cannot stop climate change in the short term, we can help tropical marine ecosystems survive. If reef managers and politicians follow the measures proposed in these publications, we may be able to reverse the trend," says Carl Gustaf Lundin, head of IUCN's Global Marine Programme.

The proposed measures are intended to keep other disturbances and threats away, making these ecosystems healthier and thus more resilient to climate impacts. "We need to minimize human impacts such as pollution, overfishing or unsustainable coastal development. Then the coral reefs have a bigger chance of coming back after bleaching and of adapting to rising sea temperatures or more acid waters," according to Gabriel Grimsditch of IUCN. Particularly healthy and climate-change-resilient sites should be protected as these may be able to help restore degraded coral reefs and mangroves in the future. Monitoring of coral reefs before, during and after a bleaching event is needed to raise awareness amongst managers and politicians.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the economies in transition (EITs) of eastern and central Europe grew by 4.1 per cent over the period 2000-2004, according to the latest data compiled by the Climate Change Secretariat. "This means that industrialized countries will need to intensify their efforts to implement strong policies which reduce greenhouse gas emissions," warned executive secretary Yvo de Boer. Over the period 1990-2004, total emissions from the industrialized nations have fallen by 3.3 per cent. Much of this, though, has been due to massive declines in emissions from the EITs during the 1990s, a trend that has now been reversed.

The 2006 United Nations Climate Change Conference, consisting of the second meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol COP/MOP2), in conjunction with the twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention (COP12), is taking place from November 6-17th in Nairobi, Kenya. Some delegates doubt that much progress will be made at these sessions. But "the clock is ticking," says Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme. "We are in fact in some ways with our backs against the wall if you want to have a post-2012 regime in place. We need to keep moving." While arguing that "we need to act very urgently or it's going to get very expensive," Yvo de Boer, who leads the Climate Change Secretariat, told Reuters that there is no pressure yet to set a deadline for completing a post-Kyoto agreement.

The Stern Review of climate economics, released last week, has received criticism from a number of quarters. Not surprisingly, the Australian government, which has refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, rejected the report's conclusions. Arguing that an effective international agreement must include all nations, Prime Minister John Howard told coalition members of parliament not to get "mesmerized" by one report. "If everybody is in, I am prepared to lead Australia in," he said. "But I am not prepared to lead Australia into an agreement that is going to betray the interests of the working men and women of this country and destroy the natural advantage that providence gave us." The United States vigorously defended its position as the report was launched. White House spokesman Tony Snow said that President Bush "has, in fact, contrary to stereotype, been actively engaged in trying to fight climate change and will continue to do so."

Christian Aid welcomed the Stern Review but warned that its conclusions would not lead to adequate protection for millions of poor people. "Talk of economic dangers is all very well but a real danger still remains for poor people in the developing world whose futures depend on our willingness to act," commented Christian Aid's Andrew Pendleton. "If we follow the report's conclusions, we may avert economic bankruptcy but we will still be teetering on the brink of moral bankruptcy." Christian Aid is concerned that Stern dismisses a carbon dioxide equivalent stabilization level of 450 parts per million as too expensive, but, in reality, poor people are already struggling to cope with existing climate change as a result of an atmosphere polluted with 430ppm. At Stern's higher target levels, "large parts of the developing world would be exposed to a much greater risk of disaster and misery," Pendleton said.

A new report from the World Bank argues that, if left standing to provide carbon storage, forests may be worth five times as much as when felled. "The trees are worth more alive, storing carbon, than they would be worth if burned and transformed to unproductive fields," says lead author Kenneth Chomitz. "Right now, people living at the forest’s edge can’t tap that value." Tropical deforestation accounts for about a fifth of carbon emissions, with five per cent or more of these forests lost a decade. "By the middle of the century, vast tropical forests may be reduced to just shreds of what they once were," warns Chomitz.

"Global carbon finance can be a powerful incentive to stop deforestation," according to François Bourguignon at the World Bank. "Compensation for avoiding deforestation could help developing countries to improve forest governance and boost rural incomes, while helping the world at large to mitigate climate change more vigorously." Kathy Sierra, also with the World Bank, reckons that a "comprehensive framework that integrates sustainable forest management into the global strategy for mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity" is needed. The report considers approaches to limiting deforestation in different forest areas, designed to tackle problems specific to each region.

According to the Stern Review of climate economics, "our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th Century." Commenting on the report, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that "this disaster is not set to happen in some science fiction future many years ahead, but in our lifetime." "Investment now will pay us back many times in the future, not just environmentally but economically as well," he continued. "For every £1 invested now we can save £5, or possibly more, by acting now."

The report, which was commissioned by the British government, considers the economic impacts of future climate trends and the costs of taking action to avert the threat by reducing emissions and limiting impacts. It concludes that stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gases will cost about one per cent of annual global output by 2050. With no action, climate change will reduce global consumption per head by between five and 20 per cent by that time. Citing climate change as the greatest market failure the world has seen, the Stern Review advocates carbon pricing, policies to drive the development and deployment of low-carbon and high-efficieny technology, and action to remove barriers to energy efficiency and to foster individual responses. The report's author, Sir Nicholas Stern, considers that "the conclusions of the Review are essentially optimistic. There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we act now and act internationally."

The president of Kiribati, Anote Tong, has warned Australia and New Zealand that climate change could create countless environmental refugees. "If we are talking about our island states submerging in ten years' time, we simply have to find somewhere else to go," he said. "If we become refugees, then so be it. I think the international community has to get used to it." He was speaking at a meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum in Fiji. "Our islands are very flat, as flat as a table," said Paani Laupepa, representing Tuvalu, in an interview with Reuters. "It will be the whole population, the entire 10,000 people will be affected. We have a right to live in this environment and now we are being forced away."

Laupepa feels that Australia "has no commitment" to solving the Pacific Islanders' problems. Responding to a recent report on global warming impacts in the Pacific, Australian environment minister, Ian Campbell, has said that Australia "has always stood by our Pacific neighbours in times of need and that will never change." The focus, though, should be on helping islanders to stay in their home countries. New Zealand has announced a plan to accept up to 5000 seasonal workers from island states. "It's a foot in the door," Laupepa said. "We are very grateful. Labour mobility is an opportunity to gain something useful in life."

The United States and the European Union pledged to increase collaboration and explore areas for further work on renewable energy, clean coal and other climate-related policies during a two-day meeting in Finland. The meeting was the latest in a series of dialogues that was established at the Eleventh Conference of the Parties to the climate convention last year. Paula Dobriansky, head of the United States delegation, said that the two sides shared "very common goals and objectives" on the climate issue, adding there were "multiple" ways of achieving the results.

James Connaughton, of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, cited cleaner coal as a major area for cooperation. "Coal is one of the biggest challenges because it's the area where we need some of the most significant investments and technological applications," he said. He also called for joint standards on biofuels. "It's very important for us to come to agreement on the basic standards for those fuel grades so that manufacturers can produce vehicles and engines that can use the fuel globally."

"The potential for conflict arising from the consequences of global warming" represents a major trend that "we now see", warns Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme. "If global warming trends continue,... they will have significant impact on where people can live, grow food and whether people will have to leave," he said in an interview with Reuters. Steiner was attending the Second Intergovernmental Review of the Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities in Beijing, China.

The Beijing meeting saw the release of a new report on coral reefs, entitled Our Precious Coasts. The study underlines the importance of protecting the natural resilience of coral reefs in order to strengthen their resistance to long-term climate change. "If we fail to protect the coastlines from unchecked piecemeal development, or protect the water sheds from deforestation, huge amounts of sewage and sediment loads will reduce the ability of reefs to recover dramatically. Once they are overgrown, it is difficult for them to recover, and over time they change or even die entirely," says Christian Nellemann, from UNEP GRID-Arendal in Norway.

"At present, the financial resources provided to developing countries do not suffice to meet the needs for mitigation and adaptation as required under the United Nations Climate Change Convention and its Kyoto Protocol," says Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the climate treaty Secretariat. Addressing participants at the conference Make Markets Work for Climate held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, he called for a long-term legal framework to provide security for carbon markets and climate investments. "Whilst the Clean Development Mechanism has been gaining speed very rapidly, there would be a significant risk for the value of carbon beyond 2012 without a long-term provision for the carbon market," he warned. "To guarantee continuity for investments, a post-2012 agreement is urgently needed."

Kofi Annan, head of the United Nations, has warned that the true test of international environmental agreements remains implementation and enforcement. In a message to an environmental law colloquium in New York, in the United States, he said that "action on climate change is particularly urgent, given its profound implications for virtually every aspect of human well-being, from jobs and health to growth and security." "Until we stop treating climate change as a strictly environmental concern, and instead recognize the full nature of this threat, our action will fall short," he continued.

The Pew Center on Global Climate Change has provided a guide for corporate decision makers, Getting Ahead of the Curve, that presents an in-depth assessment of the development of corporate strategies that take account of climate-related threats and opportunities. Authored by Andrew Hoffman of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor in the United States, the report concludes that businesses need to engage actively with government in the development of climate policy. "If you look at what is happening today at the state level and in the Congress, a proactive approach in the policy arena clearly makes sound business sense," said Eileen Claussen from the Pew Center. "In the corporate world, inaction is no longer an option."

As Japan reported that its greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 0.6 per cent over the past financial year, carbon credit trading between companies began under the nation's new voluntary scheme. "It's the first trial of a real emissions cap and trading system in Japan," reported Yasushi Ninomiya of the Ministry of the Environment. There are, though, criticisms of the scheme. "Our company will not join the voluntary emissions-trading scheme next year," said Nippon Electric Glass spokesman Kuniaki Kimura. "The government subsidies are not well linked to business investments to install equipment to cut emissions."

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that 854 million people around the world remain undernourished. Foreign aid for agriculture and rural development has declined from over US$9 billion per year in the early 1980s to less than US$5 billion in the late 1990s. At present, forty countries face food emergencies, with the worst situation in the Darfur region of the Sudan. According to a recent FAO report, "the already precarious food supply situation [in Darfur] may worsen if deteriorating security disrupts the main harvest due to start in the coming few weeks."

The FAO report, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, for October 2006 warns that prospects for the year's cereal harvest have deteriorated further due, amongst other things, to adverse weather conditions in Australia, Argentina, Brazil and South Asia. "The main concern is the declining stocks and whether supplies will be adequate to meet demand without world prices surging to even higher levels," the report states. The southern Africa region will require 542,000 tons of cereal for the 2006/7 season to meet predicted shortfalls. HIV/Aids, high unemployment and low purchasing power are cited as the main reasons for the continuing crisis in this region.

October 9th was World Overshoot Day for 2006, the day on which humanity exhausted this year's renewable natural resources and began living beyond its ecological means, according to Global Footprint Network (GFN). Mathis Wackernagel, GFN executive director, warns that "humanity is living off its ecological credit card and can only do this by liquidating the planet’s natural resources. While this can be done for a short while, overshoot ultimately leads to the depletion of resources, such as the forests, oceans and agricultural land upon which our economy depends."

Humanity first went into ecological debt in 1987, when Overshoot Day was December 19th. By 1995, it had moved forward to November 21st. "By living so far beyond our environmental means, and running up ecological debts we make two mistakes. First, we deny millions globally who already lack access to sufficient land, food and clean water the chance to meet their needs. Secondly, we put the planet’s life support mechanisms in peril," said Andrew Simms, policy director of the new economics foundation, a GFN partner.

Millions could become homeless in the Asia-Pacific region as sea levels rise by up to 50cm by the year 2070, warns a new report from the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. "Vast areas of the Asia-Pacific are low lying, particularly the small-island states, as well as the large river deltas found in India and Bangladesh, Southeast Asia and China," note the authors. As sea-level rise tops 50cm, "large areas of Bangladesh, India, Vietnam are inundated and Kiribati, Fiji and the Maldives are reduced to just a small fraction of their current land area."

World Vision Australia head, Tim Costello, called for a review of national immigration policy, saying that "this is enlightened self-interest, because there are going to be so many environmental refugees knocking on our door, flooding here with the sea levels rise as predicted and... the failure of economics and crops because of the rain changes in so many of these countries." The study was commissioned by the Climate Change and Development Roundtable and was conducted by Ben Preston, Ramasamy Suppiah, Ian Macadam and Janice Bathols.

Twenty nations from the industrialized and developing worlds met in Monterrey, Mexico, last week to discuss joint action on climate change. The G8 Plus Five Climate Change Dialogue is a result of the 2005 G8 summit. There was broad agreement amongst the participants on the need to limit future emissions of greenhouse gases. "Time is running out, and the size of the challenge is enormous," warned Mexican Environment Minister José Luis Luege. "The meeting has dramatized the need for comprehensive global action. The message about the need for early action is very strong," reported British Environment Secretary David Miliband.

Welcoming the consensus, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that the meeting "is a very important indicator of the desire of the world now to come together and deal with the issue of energy and the environment and how we make sure there is sustainable growth in the future. And the fact that you have got a dialogue now that involves America and India and China, as well as the European countries, is obviously very important for the future." Despite this optimism, progress is occurring in fits and starts. The World Bank described its new framework for investment in clean technology for developing countries but reported delays with the US$20 billion investment programme. The United States has reservations about aspects of the plan.

Ozone loss over Antarctica reached a new record this year, according to the European Space Agency (ESA). "Such significant ozone loss requires very low temperatures in the stratosphere combined with sunlight. This year’s extreme loss of ozone can be explained by the temperatures above Antarctica reaching the lowest recorded in the area since 1979," reported ESA scientist Claus Zehner. The record-breaking nature of the 2006 hole is confirmed by data reported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The thinner layer "will lead to more ultraviolet radiation on the ground," said Geir Braathen, WMO ozone expert.

Measurements from the ESA Envisat satellite show an ozone mass deficit (total ozone loss) over Antarctica of close to 40 million metric tons this year. The previous record loss occurred in 2000. The ozone hole has been the largest in surface area and in depth this year, with both records broken simultaneously. The WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme reported earlier this year the latest ozone recovery forecasts, which suggest that the ozone layer might return to pre-1980 levels by 2049 over much of Europe, North America, Asia, Australasia, Latin America and Africa. Over Antarctica, ozone recovery could be delayed until 2065.

Rising pollution is having serious health, economic and environmental impacts on the world's oceans, according to a new study from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). "An estimated 80 per cent of marine pollution originates from the land and this could rise significantly by 2050 if, as expected, coastal populations double in just over 40 years time and action to combat pollution is not accelerated," said UNEP head Achim Steiner. "We have a long way to go politically, technically and financially if we are to hand over healthy and productive seas and oceans to the next generation."

The report identifies sewage as a major problem, in part because little progress has been made in this area. In many developing countries, it estimates, more then 80 per cent of sewage entering the coastal zone is untreated. "We perhaps in the 20th century thought we could use the oceans as our sewage treatment plants," said Steiner. "This sewage is not just something that goes into the sea and the sea does it for us anymore." The cost to remedy this problem would be at least US$56 billion. Marine litter, resource over-use and habitat destruction are also cited as serious impacts. Other areas in need of "urgent attention" include the impact of dams, new streams of chemicals and the state of wetlands. Efforts are needed to improve monitoring on continents such as Africa where data "remains fragmented and woefully low."