Tiempo Climate Newswatch, The Nairobi Framework

The latest round of negotiations on implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change took place in Nairobi, Kenya, during November 2006. Newswatch editor Mick Kelly reports.

"Climate change is rapidly emerging as one of the most serious threats that humanity may ever face," said Kenyan environment minister Kivutha Kibwana, president of the 2006 United Nations Climate Change Conference, as he opened the meeting. "We face a genuine danger that recent gains in poverty reduction will be thrown into reverse in coming decades, particularly for the poorest communities on the continent of Africa."

The conference, which took place November 6-17th, consisted of the second meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in conjunction with the twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention. The conference also included the twenty-fifth session of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, the twenty-fifth session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation, and the second session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol, including an in-session workshop.

"Instead of being economically defensive, let us start being more politically courageous," said Kofi Annan, secretary-general of the United Nations, in an address to the meeting. The conference "must send a clear, credible signal that the world’s political leaders take climate change seriously," he continued. "The question is not whether climate change is happening, but whether, in the face of this emergency, we ourselves can change fast enough."

He attacked those critical of the case for action. "A few diehard sceptics continue trying to sow doubt. They should be seen for what they are: out of step, out of arguments and out of time." Calling on the governments of the industrialized nations to "do much more to bring their emissions down," he referred to a "frightening lack of leadership" in meeting the challenge of climate change. Finally, he introduced the new Nairobi Framework.

The Nairobi Framework has been assembled by six United Nations agencies to help developing nations, particularly in Africa, obtain increased funding to promote clean energy technology, such as wind and hydropower, and manage the climate threat. As part of the initiative, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) have set up a partnership to build country capacity to take part in carbon finance funds - the World Bank has estimated that developing nations could earn as much as US$100 billion a year by 2050 selling carbon credits - and to decrease vulnerability to climate change.

The UNDP/UNEP partnership will operate under the banner "Helping countries achieve sustainable development in the face of a changing climate." "Investments in roads, railways, hospitals, fisheries and power systems are underway across the sub-Saharan African region but few if any are being planned with future climatic impacts in mind," commented Achim Steiner, UNEP head. "Some of these projects, for example a new dam, may be increasingly vulnerable as a result of more intense droughts whereas others - for example a coastal road scheme - may be at risk from sea level rise," he continued. "We need in-depth studies and national adaptation plans but we also need a rapid response service so that a minister, faced with a planning application, can pick up the phone and have 'climate proofing' expertise on his or her doorstep within a matter of days."

The first week of the conference saw disagreement between delegates on the deadline for agreeing a post-Kyoto accord with targets ranging from the end of 2008, through 2009 to 2010. The fact that the United States President, George W Bush, steps down in January 2009 may prove a critical factor. Harlan Watson, United States climate negotiator, said that he did not see any change in policy as a result of the mid-term elections that saw the Republican Party lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

There is concern that late agreement on a post-2012 emissions reduction schedule will adversely affect the market for carbon credits, as the industry will not be able to set the future price of carbon, and, hence, investment in clean energy. "I think it's important to the market that an agreement is reached without delay," said Ron Levi of brokers GFI. "If we don't make a set of numbers by at least 2009 then the chances of the market functioning in 2012 will be very slim indeed," predicted Henry Derwent, from the United Kingdom's environment ministry, speaking in London recently. But 2009 is "two years too late," according to Neil Eckert at Climate Exchange plc. "Frustration is justified," commented Yvo de Boer, head of the Climate Change Secretariat. "It's going slowly. The problem is that countries' interests conflict in a number of areas."

The conference eventually re-affirmed the goal of agreeing an extension to the Kyoto Protocol for the post-2012 period. This would be achieved "as early as possible and in time to ensure that there is no gap" before the new agreement comes into force. No deadline was set, disappointing some observers.

"Ministers are simply not reflecting the urgency which is being felt in the real world," charged Catherine Pearce of Friends of the Earth UK. "We are still not seeing the bold leadership which is needed here."

There has been discussion of increasing flexibility within the post-2012 agreement in order to draw in Kyoto outsiders such as the United States and major developing nations such as China and India. "We have to make it attractive for countries to take part," said Yvo de Boer, head of the Climate Change Secretariat. "I see people looking at a larger menu of options and I find that very constructive."

South Africa, speaking on behalf of the G-77/China group, argued that the developed nations should cap emissions first, while developing countries should first be "empowered". Indian environment minister Namo Narain Meena described demands that developing nations take on emissions reduction commitments post-2012 as "surreal". "Our emissions of carbon dioxide are but three per cent of the world's total, while we have 17 per cent of the global population," he said. "Even with eight per cent annual GDP growth, which we hope to attain in the near future, and which is absolutely essential to sustain if we are to succeed in eliminating mass poverty in our lifetime, it will be many decades before India's greenhouse gas emissions approach anything like the current world average." Saudi minister Ali Ibrahim al-Naimi commented that "any attempt to include developing countries in future commitments is unacceptable," noting that rich countries should honour their commitments to help poorer countries, including oil-exporting nations whose income would be affected by any switch away from fossil fuels.

Conference participants agreed a minimal review of existing measures under the Kyoto Protocol. The review will take place in 2008 and will not result in any changes to existing commitments. Developing countries had also been concerned that this review might result in demands that they adopt binding emissions targets, but a "root and branch" examination of emissions targets and other aspects of the Protocol was rejected.

The conference did approve the first amendment to the Protocol, by allowing Belarus to join the agreement in such as way as to permit it to sell surplus credits (albeit only after a stronger emissions reduction target was agreed). The issue of voluntary commitments was a hot topic throughout the meeting, with a proposal from the Russian Federation eventually deferred for consideration at a workshop in May 2007.

Disagreement between developed and developing countries regarding the climate treaty's financial mechanism, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), continued. While developed countries were generally satisfied with the GEF’s performance, developing countries expressed a number of concerns regarding resource allocation, conclusions of the recent performance review of the GEF, conditionalities attached to funding, and the replenishment process. In addition, there was debate over the relative weight attached to mitigation and adaptation support. Responding, in part, to these concerns, the meeting called on the GEF to simplify its procedures, address concerns over financing and resource allocation, particularly in the context of adaptation projects, support technology transfer and produce guidelines on educational aspects of project proposals.

The African focus of the 2006 Climate Change Conference did result in tangible gains for the continent, such as the inclusion of an explicit reference to financial resources to assist the Least Developed Countries, African countries and Small Island Developing States with start-up costs to gain access to Clean Development Mechanism projects. The conference ended with a range of decisions supporting developing country efforts to respond to the threat of climate change. The Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation was agreed, as was management of the Adaptation Fund. The principles and modalities of the Adaptation Fund include:

funding on a full adaptation cost basis;
accountability in management, operation and use of the funds;
facilitative procedures for accessing funds;
country-driven projects; and,
competency in adaptation and financial management.

Membership of the Fund’s governing body will follow a one-country-one-vote rule with the majority consisting of non-Annex I parties. The meeting also set the rules for the Special Climate Change Fund.

"The conference has delivered on its promise to support the needs of developing countries," said Kivutha Kibwana. "The spirit of Nairobi has been truly remarkable."

There was criticism of the level of financial support currently committed. "The Adaptation Fund... may raise at most 300 million Euros for the period between 2008 and 2012. But the World Bank predicts that the most vulnerable developing countries would actually need one hundred times this amount, annually," commented Jan Kowalzig of Friends of the Earth Europe. "Rich countries are largely responsible for the climate crisis. As a matter of justice, they must now commit to far greater contributions to this fund."

"While progress was made in Nairobi, our leaders must recognize that scientific evidence and public opinion demands much stronger action than what was agreed," said Hans Verolme of WWF, capturing the mood of many observers.

Further information

Additional information can be found on the Climate Change Secretariat website. Webcasts of the formal proceedings and related events are available. Earth Negotiations Bulletin has published daily reports and a summary of the outcome the meeting.

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