Tiempo Climate Newswatch

"We now have a roadmap, we have an agenda and we have a deadline. But we also have a huge task ahead of us and time to reach agreement is extremely short, so we need to move quickly," said Yvo de Boer, head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, as the United Nations Climate Change Conference 07, held in Bali, Indonesia, ended. Within days, the United States had underlined just how much distance would have to be covered as the White House announced that it had "serious concerns" about the Bali agreement. The United States came in for severe criticism for the stance it took at the Bali meeting, with agreement only reached after a last-minute U-turn by the American delegation. "The Bush administration - dragging Canada, Japan and Russia in tow - has thrown away the compass and is trying to force us all to take the journey in a gas-guzzling 4x4, not the solar-powered speedster that the world urgently needs," commented Antonio Hill, senior climate change policy adviser at Oxfam.

China announced that it was satisfied with the plan, but called on the United States to do more. "The United States is an important contributor of emissions both in total and on a per-capita basis. It has both advanced technology and ample funds," said Yu Qingtai, China's climate change ambassador. "So on the issue of tackling climate change, America should display a more positive, more constructive role," he continued. On the precise nature of any emissions control commitments taken on by the major developing nations, such as China, in a post-Kyoto agreement, and the related issue of technological assistance to developing nations, the Bali meeting rehearsed what may prove to the key debate, if not deal-breaker, in the next stage of the negotiations. The United States has long stressed the need for the leading developing nations to accept some curb on emissions growth and, for their part, developing nations underline the historic emissions responsibility of the industrialized world.

The United Nations (UN) aims to become climate neutral, offsetting emissions by investing in Adaptation Fund credits. Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), said that "offsetting emissions by supporting the soon-to-be operational adaptation fund sends a clear signal that climate proofing vulnerable economies has - like the UN's action on climate change generally - risen to the top of the organization's agenda in 2007." UNEP will become climate neutral in January 2008.

An increasing number of nations are unilaterally adopting the goal of climate neutrality. New Zealand's climate change minister David Parker said recently that his country's "plan to become climate neutral involves a goal of generating 90 percent of our electricity from renewable sources by 2025, and halving our per capita transport emissions by 2040 by introducing electric cars and a requirement to use bio fuels." An emissions trading scheme is being introduced. New Zealand will be the main host for UN World Environment Day, with the slogan "CO₂, Kick the Habit". Costa Rica will become climate neutral as part of the new presidential initiative Peace with Nature. Norway plans to become climate neutral by the year 2050, and will go beyond its current commitment under the Kyoto Protocol. UNEP is establishing an internet-based climate neutral network.

George Bush, United States president, has signed an energy bill setting a new fuel-economy standard of 35 miles per gallon by the year 2020. Fuel producers must use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel in 2022. To ensure the bill was approved, renewable incentives and a national renewable-energy standard had been removed. Citing the bill, the United States Environmental Protection Agency has ruled that individual states cannot set their own greenhouse gas emissions standards. California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has said that he will challenge the decision.

European car manufacturers face steep fines for failure to meet tough emissions standards under new legislation adopted by the European Union (EU). "This will send a strong signal to the world about the determination of the European Union to take bold measures on climate change," said environment commissioner Stavros Dimas, noting that voluntary curbs had failed. The proposed legislation, which now goes before the Council of EU member governments and the European parliament, was criticized from all sides. German environment minister Sigmar Gabriel termed the measures a "competition war" against the German car industry, aimed at favouring French and Italian rivals. Environmentalists accused the EU of a sell-out for phasing in the fines over four years, with no ambitious long-term goal.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference 07 ended with a compromise agreement on a "Bali Roadmap," which sets the agenda for defining an agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol when its commitment period expires in 2012. "Parties have recognized the urgency of action on climate change and have now provided the political response to what scientists have been telling us is needed," said Yvo de Boer, head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat. Whether or not to include specific emissions reduction targets had proved a serious source of contention during the meeting. The European Union favoured an explicit goal of a 25 to 40 per cent reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by the year 2020, but this was strenuously, and successfully, opposed by the United States. The final text of the Roadmap only refers to the need for "deep cuts in global emissions." But, with this compromise, the United States will play a role in developing the post-Kyoto regime. The Roadmap commits negotiators to pursue means of encouraging developing nations to curb emissions growth. The negotiators will consider "nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported by technology and enabled by financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner." Negotiations on the post-Kyoto agreement will be finalized by 2009.

Agreement was also reached on the future of the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries (REDD) scheme, with a commitment to "early action" ahead of the successor to the Kyoto Protocol coming into force in 2012. Methodological work will focus on assessments of changes in forest cover and associated greenhouse gas emissions, methods to demonstrate reductions of emissions from deforestation and the estimation of the amount of emission reductions from deforestation. The ultimate aim is that credits will accrue from avoided deforestation, as from renewable energy projects under the Clean Development Mechanism. "Every previous attempt to have a forest convention bombed because it tended to be a bunch of developed countries telling developing countries what to do," commented John Lanchbery of the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds. "This was a developing country proposal. It was very cleverly done and avoids all the nasty pitfalls of previous attempts. It is nice and simple. It's about reducing carbon emissions and climate people can understand that," he continued. The initiative was a favoured project of the conference hosts, Indonesia. In a separate development, the World Bank recently announced a new pilot scheme for entering forest-based carbon credits into the global trading market.

The Kyoto Protocol's Adaptation Fund will be managed by a new body, answerable to the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change, rather than being run independently by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). "This is a major victory," said Amjad Abdullah, chair of the Least Developing Countries negotiating group. "The African countries, small island states and least developed countries stuck together and fought for a dedicated secretariat with a representative governance board that has special places for the most vulnerable nations."

The GEF will provide the Fund's secretariat, which will report to a board consisting of representatives of all the world's major regions, in addition to the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The majority of members will come from developing countries and, if decisions require a vote, this will be on the basis of one country one vote. The arrangement will give "developing countries a more direct and equitable voice in how funds are prioritized and spent," commented South African environment minister Marthinus van Schalkwyk. The GEF's role will be reviewed after three years. The decision was taken at the United Nations Climate Change Conference 07 in Bali, Indonesia.

Al Gore and, on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri collected the Nobel Peace Prize on Monday, 10th December, in Oslo. "Without realizing it, we have begun to wage war on the earth itself," Gore said. "It is time to make peace with the planet. We must quickly mobilize our civilisation with the urgency and resolve that has previously been seen only when nations mobilized for war," he continued. He called for understanding of the "connections between the climate crisis and the afflictions of poverty, hunger, HIV-Aids and other pandemics. As these problems are linked, so too must be their solutions," he concluded.

Pachauri paid tribute to the "thousands of experts and scientists who have contributed to the work of the Panel over almost two decades of exciting evolution and service to humanity." Citing the "sterile outcome of previous sessions in recent years", he called on those attending the United Nations Climate Change Conference 07 in Bali, Indonesia, to provide some positive results. "Will those responsible for decisions in the field of climate change at the global level listen to the voice of science and knowledge, which is now loud and clear," he asked. The ceremony was transmitted live to the Bali meeting.

The United Nations Climate Change Conference 07 needs to deliver "a breakthrough in the form of a roadmap for a new international agreement on enhanced global action to fight climate change in the period after 2012," when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires, said Yvo de Boer, head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, as the Bali meeting opened. He does not believe that the conference will result in a fully negotiated and agreed climate deal, but it should set the necessary wheels in motion. de Boer believes that the negotiations will need to conclude in 2009 in order to allow time for ratification.

Just what the roadmap should cover was the subject of much debate during the early days of the conference. Japan proposed that it should exclude explicit targets, whilst the European Union's wish list included demands for industrialized countries to take the lead in approving mandatory cuts, strengthening the carbon market and boosting funding to help poor countries adapt. Meanwhile, the Pacific island nations called for swift action. Young Vivian, prime minister of Niue, said he feared the Bali conference would be "talk, talk, talk and meeting, meeting and meeting." "Maybe next year there'll be another disaster and they may still be talking," he said. Forest nations would like to see progress in developing the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries (REDD) scheme. "My instinct is there will be an agreement on a phased approach where we will start with some countries that are more ready than others," said Hans Verolme of WWF's Global Climate Change Programme.

The mega-deltas of Asia are in the front line of flood risk, according to a new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). By the 2070s, climate change, subsidence, population growth and urbanization, and urban development could triple the world population threatened by coastal flooding to around 150 million people. The assets exposed could grow more than ten times current levels, reaching around nine per cent of global GDP. The report concludes that "the large exposure in terms of population and assets is likely to translate into regular city-scale disasters across the global scale."

Future water crises in Asia will be sparked by "continuing neglect of proper wastewater management practices" and not "actual physical scarcity of water, as many predict at present," according to Asit Biswas of the Third World Centre for Water Management. Biswas is a co-author of Asian Water Development Outlook, commissioned by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). "Virtually no country has carefully analyzed the water, land and social implications of increasing biofuel production and then made appropriate policy decisions," the ADB report warns. Though urbanization, industrialization, population growth and climate change are likely to stress the region's water resources, the report's authors conclude that Asia has the expertise and technology to ensure adequate water supplies. Major changes in water governance practices are, however, required.

The German cabinet has approved an ambitious package of measures to address the climate problem. "Germany wants to show that a developed country can reconcile economic growth with protection of the environment," commented environment minister Sigmar Gabriel. Renewable energy will account for 25 to 30 per cent of energy needs, more than double the current level, by the year 2020. Annual subsidies of up to 500 million euros will be offered to encourage the installation of environmentally-friendly heating. The aim of these and other measures is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent below the 1990 baseline by the end of the next decade.

While welcoming many aspects of the package, environmental groups did question whether it went far enough. "Much in this energy and climate programme sounds good," said Hubert Weiger of BUND/Friends of the Earth Germany. "But it avoids many burning issues... what is really necessary is to stop building coal-powered plants, to bring in a speed limit for the motorways and abolish tax breaks for large company cars," he continued. Greenpeace criticized government support for the construction of 24 coal-fired power plants that will replace phased-out nuclear reactors.

United Nations Climate Change Conference 07 is a "make or break" opportunity to reach agreement on long-term international action on the climate problem, according to Yvo de Boer, head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat. Failure would result in a "loss of faith in the United Nations process being capable of delivering," he said in an interview with IPS. While he does not expect the meeting to agree on targets and finalize a regime, he does hope that Bali will "result in a first step on a long road to really come to grips with climate change."

de Boer calls on nations such as India "not to be as wasteful as the West" while recognizing that developing nations do not wish to "constrain their economic growth to solve the problem that somebody else has caused." In the run-up to the Bali meeting, Brazil has reiterated its opposition to targets being imposed on developing nations. "The principal responsibility lies with the industrialized countries," said Everton Vargas from Brazil's Ministry of External Relations. "Our offer is to adopt verifiable policies at a national level to combat climate change - we have our own targets," he continued.

The latest Human Development Report, from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), warns that the world is drifting towards a "tipping point" that could lock the poorest countries and their poorest citizens in a downward spiral, leaving hundreds of millions facing malnutrition, water scarcity, ecological threats and a loss of livelihoods. "Ultimately, climate change is a threat to humanity as a whole. But it is the poor, a constituency with no responsibility for the ecological debt we are running up, who face the immediate and most severe human costs," concludes UNDP head Kemal Dervis.

The report calls on the industrialized nations to take a lead in cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 per cent of 1990 levels by the year 2050, through a mix of carbon taxation, more stringent cap-and-trade programmes, energy regulation and international cooperation on financing low-carbon technology transfer. It also calls on these nations to put adaptation at the centre of international partnerships on poverty reduction. "We are issuing a call to action, not providing a counsel of despair," said lead author Kevin Watkins. "Working together with resolve, we can win the battle against climate change. Allowing the window of opportunity to close would represent a moral and political failure without precedent in human history." The report's proposal for a 20 per cent cut in emissions below 1990 levels by developing nations by the year 2050 met with a strong rebuttal from India. The report "does not address the key issues of equality and equity," according to Montek Singh Ahluwalia of India's Planning Commission.

American consumers are using the savings from greater energy efficiency to buy more and bigger appliances and vehicles, hence consuming even more energy, according to a study of the "efficiency paradox" conducted by CIBC World Markets. "While seemingly perverse, improvements in energy efficiency result in more of the good being consumed - not less," says Jeff Rubin at CIBC World Markets. The study concludes that improvements in energy efficiency are essential. But, Rubin recommends, "in order for efficiency to actually curb energy usage, as opposed to energy intensity, consumers must be kept from reaping the benefits of those initiatives in ever-greater energy consumption."

Cost still limits access to solar power on the part of the 1.6 billion people in the world without electricity, concludes a report from the InterAcademy Council. A silicon cell manufacturing boom may, however, make solar technology available even to the rural poor. "Very inexpensive solar cells could be used by off-grid people to charge appliances that don't use a lot of power [such as radios, mobile phones, water purifiers and light emitting diodes] but make a world of difference," said lead author Steven Chu from the University of California, Berkeley. The report concludes that it is a "moral and social imperative," to be pursued with all means available, that the poorest people on this planet should be supplied with basic, modern energy services. The study was commissioned by the governments of Brazil and China.

The latest figures from the United Nations show that greenhouse gas emissions from the major industrialized and transition nations are approaching an "all-time high". While total emissions from these nations fell during the final decade of the 20th century, they have risen by 2.6 per cent over the period 2000 to 2005. Continuing economic growth in the industrialized nations and economic recovery in the states of Eastern Europe is held responsible for the trend reversal. Emissions growth in the transport sector has been particularly marked.

Despite the recent trend, the Kyoto Protocol goal of an overall five per cent reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by the year 2012 remains likely to be achieved. "For the totality of Kyoto signatory countries, reductions of 15 per cent are feasible should additional policies be planned and implemented," commented Yvo de Boer, head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat. "But we should not hide the fact that there is continuing greenhouse gas emissions growth on the part of several countries and that they must do more to rein in their emissions," he continued.

Humpback and fin whales were observed this summer in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas far north of their usual habitat, marking what may be a long-term shift in environmental conditions. Humpback whales were seen in the Beaufort Sea, east of Barrow. Fin whales were detected in the Chukchi Sea, 500 kilometres north of their normal range. Both species normally remain south of the Bering Strait.

Brendan Cummings of the Center for Biological Diversity said the humpback sightings may be a sign of a recovering population expanding its range or could indicate a desperate search for food. "All signs point to global warming," he said. "That would be the first suspect of why the whales are there." "We now have even more compelling reasons to protect the Arctic Ocean and the species dramatically affected by climate change," concluded Deborah Williams from Alaska Conservation Solutions.

The East Asia Summit nations have issued the Singapore Declaration on Climate Change, Energy and the Environment. The Declaration endorses the United Nations response to the climate threat under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. It recognizes that rapid economic development, while contributing to sustainable development and poverty eradication, poses "new challenges in dealing with greater energy consumption, regional and global energy security concerns" and cites the increased need for environmental management given the projected doubling of Asia's 1.7 billion urban population between 2000 and 2030.

The Singapore Declaration endorses the long-term objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the stabilization of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. "The climate change declaration coming out of the East Asia Summit will make the Bali meeting easier," commented Alexander Downer, Australian foreign minister. "There has been a turning of the tide in China and India's position - they're saying yes we need to do something to stabilize emissions." A proposed energy intensity goal of a 25 per cent reduction by the year 2030 was, however, dropped after objections from India. The Declaration does include a strong commitment to technological development in areas such as energy efficiency and conservation, alternative energy sources and cleaner fossil-fuel energy production. The signatories did adopt an aspirational goal of a 15 million hectare increase in regional forest cover by 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Sidr made landfall on the Bangladeshi coast on Thursday November 15th, By the following weekend, the death toll may have reached 1,100, with thousands injured. The availability of shelters, as well as an evacuation programme, may spare the country the mass casualties of previous events. "We are expecting less casualties this time because the government took early measures. We alerted people to be evacuated early," said Samarendra Karmakar, head of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Over half a million people were evacuated.

Mass evacuation, albeit on a much smaller scale, took place in the east of England the previous week, as gale-force winds combined with a high tide to generate a storm surge that threatened to rival the 1953 North Sea disaster. In the event, the coast escaped serious flooding, but the UK Met Office warned that the flood risk could rise by a factor of ten this century as global warming develops. "Floods that occur once in 100 years on the East Coast today may happen once every ten years by the end of the century," said Jason Lowe of the Hadley Centre.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) met in Valencia, Spain, mid-November to finalize a summary of its Fourth Assessment of climate change science. "What is produced here in Valencia is the guide that every one of the thousands of delegates attending the crucial Climate Convention meeting in Bali will be packing in their suitcases and slipping in their back pockets," said Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme. After extensive debate, national representatives issued the sternest warning yet from the IPCC, agreeing that climate change could have "abrupt" and "irreversible" consequences.

Use of the word "irreversible" had been challenged by the United States as inappropriate in a scientific summary. India argued strongly that adaptation should be given greater emphasis, along with the need for financial assistance from the developed nations. The IPCC also discussed the next stage of its work. Before the meeting, World Meteorological Organization head Michel Jarraud stressed the need for more precise forecasts of areas at risk. "We need to give indications which are at the scale countries can use to make decisions," he said. "We need to come to a scale which is smaller than countries like Spain or France or the UK. You really need to come to smaller scales - 100, 200 kilometres. We are not yet there."

"OPEC [the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] can deliver a big part of the solution to climate change," concluded Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at a high-level OPEC seminar in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. "International action on climate change is a war against emissions, not a war against oil. Oil will continue to play a pivotal role in the global energy mix for many decades to come, not least due to growing global energy demand. But oil will have to be decarbonized with adequate technologies," he continued.

The UNFCCC Secretariat has reported that the International Transaction Log (ITL) is now operational. The ITL is a computerized system that ensures that emissions trading among countries is consistent with the climate treaty rules. "This step is a key milestone and a real achievement in the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol," said de Boer. Japan was the first country to log credits under the new system. It plans to buy 100 million tonnes of carbon offsets through the scheme over the five years from April 2008 to meet its Kyoto commitments.

Jean Ziegler, United Nations independent expert on the right to food, has called the production of biofuels a "crime against humanity" because of the food shortages and price inflation that results. He recommends a five-year moratorium, by which time "it will be possible to make biofuel and biodiesel from agricultural waste" and not food crops.

Oxfam has recently criticized the European Union (EU) for mandating that transportation fuels have to be blended with ten per cent biofuels. "In the scramble to supply the EU and the rest of the world with biofuels, poor people are getting trampled," said Robert Bailey from Oxfam. In the United States, a new industry group, Renewable Fuels Now, has been formed to address what they consider misconceptions about ethanol. "The ethanol industry has been on the receiving end of a lot of hot sticks in the eye, and they have just been taking it," says spokesman Randolph Court. "They don't want to keep taking it anymore."

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have grown 35 per cent faster than expected since 2000, according to an international team of scientists. Three factors are held responsible: global economic growth; an increase in carbon intensity; and a deterioration in the ability of land and ocean to absorb carbon from the air.

"Fifty years ago, for every tonne of carbon dioxide emitted, 600kg were removed by land and ocean sinks. However, in 2006, only 550kg were removed per tonne and that amount is falling," said Pep Canadell of the Global Carbon Project. Collaborator Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia and British Antarctic Survey concludes that "the decline in global sink efficiency suggests that stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide is even more difficult to achieve than previously thought."

Environmental activists have warned that developing countries will be hampered in fighting climate change if they exploit their natural resources to cover foreign debts. "There is a need to resolve odious debts in developing countries," the declaration from a coalition of Indonesian and international non-governmental organizations states. "The repayment of debts of developing countries has for a long time been made at the expense of natural resources, leaving communities vulnerable to the impacts of climate change," it continues.

The coalition calls on rich countries to promote green lifestyles. "We can't afford to maintain a position where the lifestyles of the rich are not up for negotiation," said coalition spokeswoman Farah Sofa, deputy director of Walhi Indonesia. "We must live simply so that others may simply live." Citing the broader environmental risks, the group opposes the use of nuclear power, genetically-modified trees and biofuels in responding to global warming. The coalition's declaration was presented at a ministerial meeting on climate change in Bogor, Indonesia.

The fires that swept California recently may presage a greater frequency of such events as climate change generates heavier vegetation and fuel loads. These fires are "exactly what we've been projecting to happen, both in short-term fire forecasts for this year and the longer term patterns that can be linked to global climate change," said Ronald Neilson of Oregon State University in the United States.

A warming planet means more evaporation and greater rainfall. "That can lead, at times, to heavier vegetation loads popping up and creation of a tremendous fuel load," according to Neilson. "But the warmth and other climatic forces are also going to create periodic droughts. If you get an ignition source during these periods, the fires can just become explosive," he continued. Three consecutive heatwaves contributed to the severe forest fires over Greece this summer.

The International Carbon Active Partnership (ICAP) has been launched to accelerate the development of a global carbon market. Founding members are nine nations of the European Union, Norway, New Zealand, four states in the United States and one Canadian province, all of whom are involved in national or regional carbon market initiatives. José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, said that ICAP "will be saying that leaders from across the developed world, leaders with vision, can work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; can put in place the tools at home and globally that are so essential if we are to succeed in tackling the greatest challenge of our generation."

ICAP will facilitate world-wide emissions trading by acting as a forum and information exchange for governments and public authorities. The Partnership plans to develop a set of agreed standards on emissions trading, including verifying and reporting of emissions, and flexible means of compliance. According to the ICAP Declaration, "future linking of emissions trading systems may provide emissions reductions at lower cost, and accelerate the scale of innovation. Larger trading volumes and improved market liquidity are likely to yield robust price signals. Linked systems may also stabilize investor expectations and help mobilize capital for the necessary transition to a global low-carbon economy."

"The systematic destruction of the Earth's natural and nature-based resources has reached a point where... the bill we hand on to our children may prove impossible to pay," warned Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme, launching GEO 4. GEO 4 is the latest report in the Global Environment Outlook series. "The fact that we are in the year 2007, with all the knowledge that we have and with all the capacity to do things differently, to present to the world at this point a report that essentially says that our response has been woefully inadequate is a very sobering realization," he observed.

On climate change, GEO 4 calls for greater progress in emissions mitigation. It concludes that "mainstreaming climate concerns in development planning is urgent, especially in sectors such as energy, transport, agriculture, forests and infrastructure development, at both policy and implementation levels." On biodiversity, the report warns that the world faces its sixth mass extinction event in 450 million years as a result of human development. Persistent problems include the decline of fish stocks, loss of fertile land, unsustainable pressure on resources, decreasing availability of fresh water and the risk that environmental damage could pass "unknown points of no return."

In the United States, the Bush administration has been accused of watering down climate change testimony to Congress. Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) says that the White House forced Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to cut specific references to the effects of climate change, removing a statement that her organization "considers climate change a serious public health concern."

"It appears the White House has denied a congressional committee access to scientific information about health and global warming. This misuse of science and abuse of the legislative process is deplorable," said Michael McCally from PSR. The White House has denied that any serious changes were made to the draft testimony. "A number of the agencies had some concerns with the draft and I know that our scientists at the Office of Science and Technology Policy looked at the draft and wanted to make sure that it was taking advantage of the science that had been provided in the [Intergovernmental] Panel on Climate Change," commented White House spokeswoman Dana Perino.

The oceans may be taking less carbon out of the atmosphere, according to a recent study, raising concern that, if the ocean sink continues to decrease in strength, the rate of global warming may accelerate. Since the mid-1990s, levels of carbon dioxide in North Atlantic waters have fallen by over a half. It is too early to tell whether this is a short-term fluctuation or part of a long-term trend.

Study author Andrew Watson from the University of East Anglia in Norwich, United Kingdom, suspects that the process is climatically-driven. He reckons that "the sink is much more sensitive to changes in climate than we expected. Therefore, if you have a series of relatively warm winters, the ocean surface doesn't cool quite so much, you don't get so much sub-surface water formed and so the carbon dioxide is not being taken down into the deep water."

Leading cement manufacturers met in Brussels recently to discuss their industry's contribution to carbon emissions. Howard Klee, who coordinates the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI), noted that "most people are not even aware that making cement produces carbon dioxide. It is an incredibly low-profile business and power companies, transportation and airlines get much more attention."

Manufacturing cement involves burning large amounts of coal and, as the raw material, limestone, decomposes, carbon dioxide is released as a byproduct. "We know there is an issue. If we draw attention to ourselves then we could attract criticism, but we could also have a voice in the regulatory solutions. Otherwise we could have something thrust upon us," said Dimitri Papalexopoulos of Titan Cement.

The number of chronically-hungry people is rising by four million a year as a result of drought, conflict and rising costs, according to the United Nations. "It's a perfect storm," said Peter Smerdon of the World Food Programme. These factors "all feed into each other." The cost of cereals has risen 50 per cent over the past five years, with recent increases driven, in part, by the demand for biofuels.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is calling for a renewed commitment to guarantee the right to food. The scourge of hunger lingers on," said Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete, president of Tanzania, at a ceremony to mark World Food Day. "There are little signs of receding. Instead hunger seems to be on the ascendancy. Estimates of this organization show that more than 850 million people in the world still live in a state of serious and permanent undernourishment. Sub-Saharan Africa alone has 206 million people... almost a quarter of the continent's population." He pointed out that the world produced enough food to feed everyone. "Ideally, no one should starve or die of hunger in the world we live in. Strangely and sadly enough, many people do. This is not fair. This is not right," he continued.

Kofi Annan, former secretary general of the United Nations, has launched a Global Humanitarian Forum, which will coordinate international efforts to counter the impact of climate change. "We need to get the world public to focus on the fact that climate change is not something down the line but is happening now, and that we have to work together to combat it," he said.

Forum board member Jan Egeland, head of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and former UN coordinator for emergency affairs, warned that five to seven times more people now lose their livelihoods from natural disasters linked to climate change than they do from conflict. "The world is waking up to something very threatening but we're not acting really, there's no investment in this as of yet," he said. The first high-level meeting of the Forum will take place in June 2008.

Young Vivian, premier of the Pacific island nation Niue, has called on the developing nations to act to save his nation. "It is very serious because if they [the largest polluters] don't listen now, and we don't do something now, we are gone," he said. "That is for sure, and we are scared." "To get some action out of these big countries is impossible for the little island nations to make it happen," he continued. "I think if big countries can't make other big countries behave, what power have we got?" He was speaking at the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in Tonga.

Bharrat Jagdeo, president of Guyana, has urged Commonwealth finance ministers to exert pressure on the forthcoming climate negotiations in Bali, Indonesia, by highlighting the economic basis of deforestation. Arguing that forests are cut down by people living in the area or engaged in agriculture and business to generate profit for national development, he said that "we must square up to this reality and recognize that the way to stop deforestation is to ensure that there is an economically viable alternative." He wants financial incentives, not only for re-planting but also for the preservation of pristine forest. Jagdeo recently offered to deploy almost all his country's rainforest "in the long term service of the world's battle against climate change."

In the aftermath of Typhoon Lekima, the Red Cross estimates that ten million people have been affected by recent storm damage and flooding in Vietnam. "We estimate that there are ten million people affected by floods in July, and ten million by the most recent floods," said Winnie Romeril, a spokeswoman for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. "A lot of people were displaced twice," she continued.

The flooding has been described as the worst in 45 years. More than 134,400 houses have been destroyed or damaged and more than 160,000 hectares of rice fields and other crops have been inundated. "The mountainous regions are facing killer flash floods while in the lowlands, standing water simply refuses to drain," said Joe Lowry of the International Federation.

Rachmat Witoelar, environment minister for Indonesia is confident that significant progress will be made at the climate negotiations in Bali in December. In particular, he reckons that the United States and Australia will reach a consensus on the way forward post-2012. Following talks with national representatives, he said that "it seems they don't mean any harm. They just want to have some things rearranged."

Meanwhile, Australia's environment minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has indicated that his government might ratify an amended Kyoto Protocol. "Australia is committed to a new, environmentally effective global agreement, and if it is global and effective and involves all the major emitters we would expect to sign it," he said. "Whether this new agreement is done by amending the Kyoto Protocol or by entering into a new protocol with another name remains to be seen - but that is a question of process only," he continued.

Computer modelling indicates that human activity is the likely cause of the observed rise in the amount of moisture in the air. The study, led by Kate Willett at Yale University in the United States, reveals that the starting point is an increase in evaporation as the world warms. Then, "warmer air can hold more moisture," says co-author Nathan Gillett of the Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, United Kingdom, where the research was conducted.

The study made use of humidity measurements over land and ocean for the most recent thirty years. The observed trends were compared with the results of a climate model simulation that took account of both natural and human factors. The work complements recent findings by Benjamin Santer at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the United States. "Natural variability in climate just can't explain this moisture change. The most plausible explanation is that it's due to the human-caused increase in greenhouse gases," comments Santer.

The Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago opened completely this year for the first time in human memory. By the end of the record-breaking 2007 melt season, a standard ocean-going vessel could have sailed through without any difficulty, reports the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, in the United States.

There is concern that the opening up of the Arctic will have a negative impact on the indigenous people of the region. "There is a real sudden grab for everything up here in the Arctic," according to Sheila Watt-Cloutier, Inuit activist. "What direction are we taking as an Inuit society? How is it we are going to deal with these monumental changes?" It may be some time, though, before the Northwest Passage rivals the Panama Canal. "There are navigational challenges, so many 'ifs' and 'buts' and the idea that you are going to take merchant ships with deep draughts through icy waters that are uncharted, really means that currently it is no match for the canal," commented Simon Bennett of the International Chamber of Shipping in London.

Tavau Teii, deputy prime minister of Tuvalu, addressing the United Nations General Assembly on October 1st, called for a new legal agreement on climate change. He would like to see a pledge for new and substantial emissions reductions by current Parties to the Kyoto Protocol and a wider range of nations, including developing nations, taking on commitments, which may be voluntary.

Tavau Teii also proposed further action on adaptation. "First we must establish a whole new source of funding for adaptation and a new approach on how adaptation funding is managed. A potential new source of funding for adaptation could come from a levy on international aviation and maritime transport," he said. "Second we must establish a global insurance facility to help assist vulnerable countries recover from the impacts of climate change."

Tourism officials and executives from 100 countries have agreed that they must "rapidly respond to climate change," given the threat to the natural resources and tourist activities, and take "concrete measures" to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The declaration was the result of a three-day meeting on tourism and global warming organized by the United Nations, held in Davos, Switzerland.

"The issue of climate change is no longer an issue for the future, it is an issue for today," said Bannve Kuamaitotoya, Fijian Secretary for Tourism. "Pull out tourism and you pull out 60 to 80 per cent of activity in the country," said Michael Nalletamby of the Seychelles tourism board. "The immediate risk is that tourism is demonized for its carbon footprint and regulated because the industry doesn't act to regulate itself," warned Christopher Rodrigues of VisitBritain. Andreas Fischlin of the Institute of Integrative Biology in Zürich, Switzerland, said that "tourism has to contribute to mitigation: it's a cause of the problem and has to take up its share." Measures proposed to cut the emissions included greater energy efficiency, renewable energy, better conservation of natural areas to serve as "earth lungs," technological or design measures to avoid pollution and staff education.

Ban Ki-moon, United Nations secretary general, told a high-level meeting of heads of government in New York that "the time for doubt [over climate change] has passed." He called for a new global commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. "We know enough to act," he said. "If we don't act now, the impact of climate change will be devastating."

Lawrence Gonzi, prime minister of Malta, said that a mechanism was needed to devise a global strategy on climate "in a more cohesive and concerted manner," avoiding the current fragmentation and paying particular attention to the needs of small island states. "It is imperative that all actors involved in climate risk reduction take a unified stand," he said. Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations Environment Programme, welcomed the event as an example of the "unprecedented momentum of public and political pressure" on environmental issues. Citing the recent agreement on eliminating hydrochlorofluorocarbons as "just one more signal that shows that the United Nations is perfectly capable of convening international consensus if indeed Member States are willing to come to the table and work together," he said that "a qualitatively different political understanding" should now underpin the next stage of the climate negotiations to be held in December in Bali, Indonesia.

George W Bush, United States president, has called on "all the world's largest producers of greenhouse gas emissions, including developed and developing nations," to come together and "set a long-term goal for reducing" greenhouse emissions. He was speaking at a meeting of sixteen high-emission nations, the United Nations and the European Union in Washington DC that was hosted by the White House later in the week of the United Nations high-level event.

"By next summer, we will convene a meeting of heads of state to finalize the goal and other elements of this approach, including a strong and transparent system for measuring our progress toward meeting the goal we set," Bush continued. "Only by doing the necessary work this year will it be possible to reach a global consensus at the United Nations in 2009." There was scepticism regarding Bush's claim to leadership on the climate issue. "This is a total charade," said one delegate, speaking anonymously to the BBC. "The president has said he will lead on climate change but he won't agree binding emissions, while other nations will. He says he will lead on technology but then he asks other countries to contribute funds, without saying how much he'll contribute himself. It's humiliating for him - a total humiliation."

Exceptional warmth in the High Arctic has led to unprecedented changes in the local environment, according to researchers from Queen's University, Ontario, Canada. "Everything has changed dramatically in the watershed we observed [on Melville Island]," reported Scott Lamoureux, referring to slips and other changes in the landscape resulting from melting permafrost. "It’s something we’d envisioned for the future - but to see it happening now is quite remarkable."

Accompanying the warmth, the summer extent of the Arctic sea ice shrunk to a 29-year low. "The decline in the amount of thick ice that survives the summer melt season this year is quite remarkable," said Josefino Comiso at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, in the United States. "The 2007 sea ice record is meaningful because it is an accentuation of a steadily downward trend in ice cover that is very apparent over the past several years, commented Stephen Vavrus from the Center for Climatic Research, Madison, Wisconsin. Comiso is concerned that positive feedback is at work. "When there is less sea ice in the summer, the Arctic Ocean receives more heat," he observed. "The warmer water makes it harder for the ice to recover in the winter, and, therefore, there is a higher likelihood that sea ice will retreat farther during the summer. This process repeats itself year after year."

1.5 million people have been affected by floods that have swept across Africa since the summer months. In what has been described as the worst flooding for decades, there have been 250 fatalities and 600,000 people have been displaced. The affected area extends from Senegal in the west to Ethiopia and Kenya in the east, with Uganda, Ghana and Togo particularly badly affected. In northern Ghana, the White Volta River burst its banks.

Aid agencies have launched funding appeals. "It is evident from the scope of the disaster that a massive aid effort will be needed to help hundreds of thousands of flood victims survive the crisis and rebuild their lives," according to Niels Scott of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. The British Red Cross says that support is needed to "provide urgently needed relief, including shelter and water purification tablets, to those affected by the crisis." The Uganda Red Cross Society plans to give construction tools to those affected. "If we give them ladders, saws and hammers, they will be able to build more permanent shelters for themselves," said Catherine Ntabadde.

The European Commission intends to establish a €50 million fund to help developing nations cope with the impact of global warming. According to Louis Michel, European Union (EU) development and humanitarian aid commissioner, "climate change is a threat to all of us, but the poorest and least-developed countries are in the worst situation." He stressed that these nations, and particularly small island states, would be the "top priority" of the new funding.

Michel described the allocation as "only a startup" and called on other EU member states to add their own contributions as "other resources are necessary to respond to the scale of the needs." Oxfam has proposed that as much as US$50 billion might be needed annually to help poor countries face the "unavoidable consequences" of climate change. The EU will create a new Global Climate Change Alliance in partnership with developing nations.

Production and use of ozone-depleting hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) will be phased out ahead of schedule, following agreement at the latest Conference of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, held in Montréal, Canada. The new phase-out deadline is 2020 for developed countries and from 2030 and to 2030 from 2040 for developing nations.

Phasing out HCFCs will also reduce global warming as these chemicals are greenhouse gases. "This is, perhaps, my most satisfying day so far in my tenure," said Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme. "Governments had a golden opportunity to deal with the twin challenges of climate change and protecting the ozone layer and governments took it," he continued. "The precise and final savings in terms of greenhouse gas emissions could amount to several billions of tonnes." The Montréal conference marked the 20th anniversary of the Montreal Protocol.

The Eighth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) was held in Madrid from the 3rd to the 14th September. The conference agreed a ten-year action plan to combat desertification but, despite negotiations over-running on the final day, no agreement on finance was reached. Japan and the United States opposed a budget increase. "This was not the outcome we had hoped for," said Spanish environment minister Cristina Narbona. "We are going to work hard to get over this sole obstacle," she continued.

The link between desertification and climate change was a major theme of the meeting. "These two issues are very intimately related in the way you can describe them as two halves of a coin," said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). "Climate change already has had a major impact on desertification and what the scientists are telling us is that if we fail on climate change the impact in terms of desertification is going to be much worse because you'll see changes in rainfall pattern leading to more desertification," he continued.