Tiempo Climate Newswatch

The Tenth Conference of the Parties (COP-10) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) over-ran by a day as delegates sought to reach agreement on the format of future negotiations regarding what happens after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. A compromise was eventually reached between the United States and Europe, containing a commitment to a single meeting in May 2005. The United States had opposed European plans for a series of informal meetings. "It is a give-and-take exercise and I think on balance we are very pleased with the outcome," said Harlan Watson of the United States State Department. During the closing session, India, with support from China, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, called for a guarantee that developing nations would not have to accept emission cuts. But the European Union rejected the demand and the compromise agreement stood.

Throughout the meeting, developing countries argued for stronger commitments on assistance to avert the consequences of climate change. The Africa Group emphasized the urgency of adaptation and stressed the importance of operationalizing the Special Climate Change Fund. They want funding not only for research but also for the implementation of adaptation measures. Alberto Cárdenas Jiménez, Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources, Mexico, argued that the lack of action on adaptation limits the economic ability of developing countries to achieve sustainable development. He said that the issue has been addressed in a fragmented manner under the climate treaty and supported an Argentinian proposal for an adaptation work programme. COP-10 was held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, December 6-18th 2004.

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A Pew Center initiative, aimed at bringing the United States into a post-Kyoto agreement with major emitters from the developing world, held its latest round of discussions alongside COP-10 in Buenos Aires. "The rejection by the United States really set off the search for better ways of doing things," said Michael Zammit Cutajar, former Executive Secretary of the climate treaty secretariat, "What seems to be taking shape is a series of feasible options that respond to different economic and political circumstances." The idea is a 'variable geometry' for emissions control post-2012 that would permit approaches to vary from one country to another.

"Kyoto is a start, but ahead lies a far greater challenge: engaging all the world’s major emitters in a long-term approach that fairly and effectively mobilizes the technology and resources needed to protect the global climate," according to Pew Center President Eileen Claussen. The approaches under consideration include methods that would link emissions targets to economic growth or focus targets on specific activities and economic sectors. National targets may represent purely financial commitments, for example, to cover the costs of emissions controls elsewhere. Gao Feng, of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, favours a "bottom-up approach" with each country determining for itself "what might be technically, economically, socially and politically acceptable." Bill Hare, from Greenpeace, was sceptical, saying that "bottom-up is a euphemism for not doing much at all beyond what would normally happen."

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A British government report on climate science in Africa concludes that, despite the vulnerability of the continent to climate variability, "there is a sense that climate is only marginally entering into development planning, and that societal resilience is not improving." The Africa Climate Report suggests a set of "options for collective action," including strengthening research capacity, the creation of a regional climate centre, a training fund for African climatologists and a research programme on climate and sustainable development.

Declan Conway of the University of East Anglia, one of the report's authors, believes that solutions to the threat posed by climate change cannot be imposed by the international community. "The answers will come from Africa," he says. Assessment of vulnerability is, he argues, a priority as a basis for "trying to improve the capacity to prepare and cope." The United Kingdom's priorities for its G8 presidency during 2005 are climate change and Africa.

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It is with a great sense of loss that we report the death of Gerald Leach. Gerry died on Friday December 10th 2004 after a long illness.
He was a towering man, with an intellect to match, fully committed to his decades of work as an energy and development analyst.
Gerry was a much-valued contributor to Tiempo, appreciated for his comments as our "bemused observer," and recently became co-editor of the quarterly bulletin. We will sorely miss his insight, knowledge and wisdom.
Our thoughts are with his dearly loved family at this time. He was a man who celebrated and lived life to the full.

Mick Kelly and Sarah Granich

The Tenth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is taking place December 6th to 17th in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Opening the meeting, Argentina's environment minister Ginés González Garcia stressed the importance of additional assistance for poor countries to avoid climate impacts. The position of the least developed countries was expressed by a Tanzanian delegate: "for our countries, climate change is more catastrophic than terrorism." Environmental groups called for "urgent action from governments" to halt the change in climate that, they said, hit hardest at the poor. Greenpeace built a model of Noah's Ark in the centre of the city to pressure governments to respond to the climate threat.

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Joke Waller-Hunter felt "pretty upbeat" as the conference began. The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol "will make a huge difference to the mood in which this meeting takes place," she said. Harlan Watson of the United States State Department, argued that, despite not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, "we match or exceed what any other country is doing to address the issue." The United States is focusing on plans to improve energy efficiency, with the goal of reducing carbon intensity by 18 per cent by 2012. Analysts note that this goal represents a 13 per cent rise in national carbon emissions.

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British scientists claim that "it is very likely that human influence has at least doubled the risk" of extreme weather events, such as the European heatwave of 2003. Peter Stott, of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, and Dáithí Stone and Myles Allen of the University of Oxford modelled the likelihood of the 2003 heat wave taking place with and without any human influence. According to Stott, "we found that although the high temperature experienced in 2003 was not impossible in a climate unaltered by man, it is very likely that greenhouse gases have at least doubled the risk and our best estimate is that such a heatwave is now four times more likely as a result of human influence on climate."

The study may provide the basis for lawsuits as Pacific islanders blame the United States for global warming. "This is the kind of evidence that will help those seeking compensation," said Peter Roderick of Climate Justice. "One study is not going to create an entirely new area of jurisprudence," according to Steve Sawyer of Greenpeace, "but this is an important step." Others were less convinced. "Other legal questions about whether emitters should have foreseen damage, and their fault or negligence, will present formidable hurdles to claimants," commented study author Myles Allen and lawyer Richard Lord.

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The Brazilian government has released its inventory of greenhouse gas emissions, required under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. A matter of some controversy in Brazil, the report shows that the nation generated 1.03 billion tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent in 1994, about three per cent of global emissions. This makes Brazil one the world's largest polluters.

Burning of the Amazon and other forests accounts for three-quarters of the total. "It is now clear that Brazil's quickest way to reduce its contribution to global warming is fundamentally to change the process of occupation and land use in the Amazon," responded Greenpeace. Marina Silva, Brazil's Environment Minister, said that the government would not "escape from its responsibilities" to protect the environment. "The effort by the government to fight deforestation has to be significant to hit illegal activities."

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The Philippines has been hit by a series of storms, causing flash floods, landslides and mudslips and leaving at least 1,000 people dead or missing. The sequence began during the period November 17-20th when tropical storm Muifa lingered on the east coast before passing over the country, closely followed by tropical depression Merbok. Both storms made landfall on the main island of Luzon. Suffering multiple strikes, the towns of Baler and Dingalan in Quezon Province were among the worst hit. Environment Secretary Mike Defensor claimed that, in the case of flooding in Nueva Ecija, north of Manila, "there is no doubt that illegal logging... is the cause of the flash floods. Strengthening to typhoon force, Muifa also made landfall in Vietnam, killing at least 40 people.

Following heavy rains associated with a tropical depression earlier in the week, Typhoon Nanmadol hit the north of the country on Thursday December 2nd. Gusts reached 220 km/h (138 mph). The town of Real in Quezon province was particularly hard hit, with 400 troops despatched there with relief supplies. As well as homes and crops, roads, bridges, powerlines and other infrastructure have been destroyed, seriously hampering rescue efforts. "Together as a nation, we will rise from the devastation," said President Gloria Arroyo. "We need one great heave to deliver the relief supplies, find the missing, rescue the isolated, feed the hungry and shelter the homeless."

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Despite strong evidence that climate change will prove disastrous for the polar region, Arctic Council delegates meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland, have missed "a chance to show leadership on climate change," according to the WorldWide Fund for Nature. The conference declaration encourages "effective measures" to cope with climate change but it makes no specific recommendations. Opposition from the United States made it impossible to reach a stronger consensus. Delegates broke into laughter when Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja announced that "it was the best possible declaration that could be adopted today."

Arctic peoples are joining up with small islanders to campaign against global warming. "We are two of the world's most vulnerable areas," commented Sheila Watt-Cloutier of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference. "Linking up makes a lot of sense. We can start working together, mobilizing ourselves at various UN forums or global negotiations sessions to turn up as a team," she said. The Inuit plan to petition the Organization of American States, to brand global warming a human rights abuse by the United States.

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After sub-Saharan Africa, the Pacific islands have made the least progress towards the UN's Millennium Development Goals, according to a the latest assessment by the UN Statistics Division. Of the 20 key targets, six areas show no change or else show negative progress. There has been a decline in measles immunization, an increase in the spread of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, a decline in forest cover, and limited access to drinking water and sanitation.

The Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat and the UN Development Programme have released the Pacific Islands Regional Millennium Development Goals Report, which concludes that "in some sectors, in particular, health, there is a real risk that some of the region's gains could be reversed." In January 2005, Mauritius will be the venue for the UN International Meeting to Review the Implementation of the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States.

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The first Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project has been formally registered, marking the latest phase in the implementation of this market mechanism aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The project will cut landfill emissions of methane in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Methane from rotting rubbish will be burned to generate electricity, rather than escaping to the atmosphere. Project partners are S A Paulista, EcoSecurities and the World Bank Netherlands Clean Development Facility.

Under the CDM, companies in industrialized nations or the nations themselves can undertake a clean-development project in a developing country, with the dual aims of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting sustainable development goals. The company or nation can claim 'credit' for the emissions saving and sell them on or else set them against their own emissions target. The lower cost of reducing emissions in the developing world compared to the home country makes the investment attractive.

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The beleaguered people of the Darfur region of the Sudan face drought and the loss of much of the year’s harvest. Andrew Natsios, head of the US Agency for International Development, warns that farmers who have not fled the two-year conflict "have enough production from this crop to last perhaps until March, but certainly not until the end of December 2005" when the next harvest is due. The International Committee of the Red Cross estimates that 85 per cent of the crop will be lost.

United Nations targets for food distribution will not be met this month because of the security situation. A government ban on trade across the border with Chad means that farmers cannot sell their livestock, a traditional coping strategy. The market closure is a "very dangerous thing," according to Natsios. The government-backed militia have, it is reported, been stealing livestock from the local farmers and this has aggravated the conflict with the rebel groups.

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Some coral reefs are recovering from the "bleaching" of the 1998 El Niño, despite warmer oceans and pollution, concludes the 2004 Status of the Coral Reefs of the World. "Recovery should continue provided there are no major climate shifts in the next few decades," according to the World Conservation Union (IUCN) assessment.

Natural threats, such as the crown of thorns starfish, has eased in recent years, but human pressure continues to stress the world's coral reefs. Reefs in South and Southeast Asia are most at risk. "As long as poverty, population growth and lack of alternative livelihoods keep people dependent on already depleted reef resources, the coral reefs of South Asia will continue to degrade," said Jerker Tamelander of IUCN.

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The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will come into force on February 16th 2005. The Russian Federation handed ratification papers to the United Nations last week. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan welcomed the development as a "historic step forward," ending a "long period of uncertainty." The Kyoto Protocol was drafted in 1997.

With the Protocol’s entry into force: 1) industrialized nations must meet quantitative targets for limiting their greenhouse gas emissions, reducing their combined emissions of six major gases to 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012; 2) the framework for an international carbon trading market will come into being; 3) the Clean Development Mechanism will move to full operation, encouraging investments in developing-country projects that limit emissions and are consistent with sustainable development goals; and 4) the Adaptation Fund will start preparations to assist developing countries cope with the impacts of climate change.

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The leaders of the Arctic peoples have slammed the United States for blocking international efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. "The short-term economic policy of one country should not be able to trump the entire survival of one people," said Sheila Watt-Cloutier of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference. She was speaking at an international conference that launched the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

The foreign ministers of the Arctic Council countries, including the United States, meet on November 24th to discuss the implications of the Arctic Assessment. Indigenous leaders have called for a "robust" and "strong" declaration from this gathering. "To be honest I don't expect a good declaration," warned Geir Tommy Pedersen of the Saami Council. "The United States is the big bad wolf when it comes to climate policy. It is blocking efforts to flesh out political recommendations."

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Tropical birds sing in response to cues in the environment. Climate change threatens to disrupt this behaviour and hence the breeding cycle, according to recent research. Scientists from Virginia Tech and the University of Washington, Seattle, compared the behaviour of the rufous-collared sparrow at two sites on either side of the Andes mountain range, only 25km apart but experiencing very different climatic conditions. The results showed differences in the timing of breeding and related variability in the song-control systems in the two populations.

Outside of the tropics, day-length triggers singing and the start of the breeding season, with testosterone the physiological cue. "We think it's probably still testosterone that causes tropical birds to sing," according to Ignacio Moore of Virginia Tech, but that, with day-length relatively constant, "the environmental cue is different." Climate change could be the reason for observed changes in breeding and migration in birds, he continued, "if the brain is truly sensitive to environmental cues, the changes due to global warming could have "effects we haven't thought of yet."

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China has released its first official estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions. With total national emissions of 2.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide in the early 1990s, and despite reported efficiency gains later in the decade, China is the second biggest greenhouse polluter behind the United States. Taking emissions per head of population, though, China ranks much lower. "It's still relatively low per capita, but the volume is increasing rapidly," said Khalid Malik, United Nations resident coordinator in Beijing. China intends to quadruple its economic output by 2020, with inevitable rises in energy consumption. There are fears that China's national emissions may exceed those of the United States by that year.

The Chinese government is under increasing pressure to limit this growth in emissions. The government is "not ambitious enough. It can do better," says Lo Sze Ping of Greenpeace China. "China does not want its emissions volume to be higher than the United States," responds Gao Guangsheng of the National Development and Reform Commission, "but you have to look at our population. The economy must develop. China has 1.3 billion people and we have to live." The new report is a requirement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

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Large areas of China are undergoing the most serious drought in half a century, according to recent reports. Worst affected are the southern and eastern provinces. In Jiangxi Province, water supplies for over half a million people are threatened. In Guangdong Province, two million people are affected. Water levels in the major tributaries of the Pearl River are at their lowest for 50 years.

The Guangdong Provincial Committee has urged local government departments and officials to ensure water supplies for people and animals. According to Ou Guangyuan of the Provincial Committee, "anti-drought efforts have become an important and long-term task." Guangdong Province has lost 1.4 billion yuan (US$170 million) from agriculture this year. More than half a million hectares of farmland have been affected and 41,000 hectares have had no harvest as a result of the drought.

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The leaders of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic have called for action to slow climate change and for assistance in coping with climate impacts. They were responding to the recent Arctic Climate Impact Assessment study. "We realize that we will be forced to make some adaptations, as we are already seeing the effects of climate change in our communities. We need to be given the resources to deal with these challenges," said Geir Tommy Pedersen of the Saami Council.

An information campaign is underway. "We need to tell our own people about what is in this report," said Rodion Sulyandziga of the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North. "They are already facing many challenges, but we must prepare them for this challenge also. More than this, we need to tell the rest of the world about the necessity of taking action on climate change, and taking it now." The report's projections suggest the Arctic could become near ice-free in summer by the year 2100, creating substantial problems for the people who hunt in the area. The study suggests that climate change may challenge the survival of some cultures.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill confirming approval of the Kyoto Protocol on Thursday November 4th. The Protocol will come into force 90 days after Russia notifies the United Nations that it has ratified the agreement.

Yuri Safonov, environmental economist at Russia's Higher School of Economics, argues that Russia should "take advantage of its position as the main quota supplier" and set prices for carbon emission rights. Russia could sell up to two billion tonnes of carbon emissions rights by 2008, with the price increasing to "at least 20 dollars a tonne," he estimates. The Russian surplus, against a 1990 baseline, results from the closure of inefficient factories and a range of economic difficulties over the past decade. Europe is about to launch the world's largest carbon trading scheme.

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Representatives of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) met in Tanzania during the week of October 25th to discuss their joint approach to the Tenth Conference of the Parties (COP-10) to the climate treaty. "We have to come up with a common position on issues like the Kyoto Protocol, a subject that is of late at the centre of international controversy," said conference chair Richard Muyungi. The meeting also considered initiatives such as the National Adaptation Programmes of Action.

The group prepared an agreement intended to galvanize the industrialized nations into taking responsibility for their dominant contribution to the climate problem and assisting the poorer nations in converting their industries to greenhouse-friendly practices. "The problem is the international community has the technology, but is not ready to assist the South," said Muyungi in an interview with SciDev.Net. "If they decide to help us with solar technology, people would not cut trees for cooking... It is a question of willingness. Without their assistance, we say we will continue to emit as we need to develop." The resolution will be presented to COP-10 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in December 2004.

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A report on Arctic climate change, released this week, concludes that human influence is now "the dominant factor" in regional trends. "The big melt has begun," said WWF climate director Jennifer Morgan. The Arctic ice cap has shrunk by 15 to 20 per cent over the past three decades and the report's projections suggest the Arctic could become near ice-free in summer by the year 2100. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment study was commissioned by the Arctic Council and represents the work of close to 300 scientists as well as elders of the region's Native American communities.

Impacts are already occurring as the ice melts, permafrost thaws, buildings are losing their foundations and infrastructure is lost. Irreplaceable habitats for species such as the polar bear and seal are disappearing. There may, though, be some positive effects as oil and gas extraction becomes easier and shipping lanes open. The report will provide a basis for new policy recommendations by Arctic governments at a meeting in Iceland later this month. It has already led to a rift between the United States and European governments.

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Jim Hansen, a leading climate researcher in the United States, has accused the Bush administration of stifling scientific evidence on global warming. "In my more than three decades in government, I have never seen anything approaching the degree to which information flow from scientists to the public has been screened and controlled as it is now," he said. Hansen is director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

Speaking at the University of Iowa, he accused the administration of only wanting to hear results that "fit their predetermined, inflexible position." Evidence that might raise concern is often dismissed as not being of interest to the public. Reports that outline the potential dangers of climate change are edited to make the problem seem less serious. "This, I believe, is a recipe for environmental disaster," he concluded.

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Britain is requesting a higher greenhouse gas emissions allowance from the European Union (EU) in the run-up to the launch of an EU carbon trading scheme on January 1st 2005. The justification is a 7.6 per cent increase in carbon output in sectors involved in the scheme since a projection was made in April that set the national baseline. Margaret Beckett, environment secretary, said the existing quota "would have had a devastating effect on industry." Britain is asking for an increase in its national allowance of close to three per cent (19.8 million tonnes of carbon).

Under the European Union's carbon trading scheme, governments will set individual targets for plants - power stations, pulp mills, cement factories, and so on - that are large emitters. Pollution permits will be assigned that can be bought and sold on the open market. It is anticipated that 2.2 billion tonnes of carbon a year will be traded to ensure these targets are met. Plants that exceed their target will be fined 40 euro a tonne of excess carbon during the initial three-year period, increasing to 100 euro a tonne thereafter.

The UK government's climb-down resulted in considerable anger and disappointment. Tony Blair and the Department of Trade and Industry "have failed to put the environment ahead of industry," accused Friends of the Earth. "This is further evidence that Tony Blair will never bite the bullet when it comes to the environment," concluded Liberal Democrat politician Norman Baker.

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Representatives of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) met in Tanzania during the week of October 25th to discuss their joint approach to the Conference of the Parties to the climate treaty in December. "We have to come up with a common position on issues like the Kyoto Protocol, a subject that is of late at the centre of international controversy," said conference chair Richard Muyungi.

The meeting will also consider initiatives such as the National Adaptation Programmes of Action, a major concern of the group. Opening the meeting, Tanzanian Minister of State for the Environment Arcado Ntagazwa urged LDCs to unite in opposition to those activities of the developed nations that were giving rise to climate change.

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The Russian State Duma, the lower house of parliament, has ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Ratification took place on Friday October 22nd. According to Interfax, it was supported by 334 parliamentarians, 73 were against, and two abstained. The minimum number of votes to needed pass is 226.

The Protocol now has to pass through the upper parliament and be signed by President Vladimir Putin, though this is considered a formality. The threshold for implementation will then have been exceeded and the Protocol should come into force some time early in 2005. The United States position remains the same. "We do not believe that the Kyoto Protocol is something that is realistic for the United States and we have no intention of signing or ratifying it," said State Department spokesman Adam Ereli.

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"Decades of progress and development could be wiped out overnight. Climate change is undermining advances in development and preventing countries raising themselves out of poverty," warns the report, Up in Smoke, compiled by a coalition of development and environment organizations. The 17-member coalition included ActionAid, Christian Aid, Oxfam, Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace. The coalition argues that climate change could render the international targets laid down in the Millennium Development Goals unachievable.

"Climate change is the mother of all ecological debts owed by the north to the south," said a spokesperson from the new economics foundation (nef), who, with the International Institute for Environment and Development, organized the study. The report calls for a global risk assessment to determine the potential cost of adaptation in poor countries and urges rich countries to provide additional funds to cover climate-related disaster relief. Andrew Simms, nef Policy Director, argued for "a global framework to stop climate change that is based on equity." "Plans for human development must be climate-proof and climate-friendly," he continued.

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A little action now to limit long-term climate change would be cheaper than doing nothing at this time and having to do much more later, according to a recent study. A carbon tax of five cents a gallon of gasoline would be the best way to start. "You can think of the tax as a low-cost insurance policy that protects against climate change," said Michael Schlesinger, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

The analysts assumed that tax policies would be enacted from 2005 and identified the optimum strategy, balancing costs and benefits. Gross global product was used as a measure of climate impacts. "The idea is to search for the tax that provides the least cost over the whole period. If the tax is too low, you do too little in the beginning, then after 30 years you have to do a lot. On the other hand, if the tax is too high, you spend too much now, and you may have to do only a little later," explained Schlesinger. The five cents tax on a gallon of gasoline corresponds to a tax of US$10 per ton of carbon. The optimal strategy has this tax increasing to US$33 a ton over a 30-year period.

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The Russian State Duma, the lower house of parliament, will debate ratification of the Kyoto Protocol Friday October 22nd. Ratification is near certain as the main pro-Kremlin party has a substantial majority. Joke Waller-Hunter, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, commented that Russian ratification would "launch an exciting new phase in the global campaign to reduce the risks of climate change.”

Despite claims to the contrary by some Russian politicians, most analysts agree that ratification of the Kyoto Protocol is not likely to damage the national economy. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, industry was set back and greenhouse gas emissions dropped to 70 percent of the 1990 baseline. Russia, with a Kyoto target of stabilization at 1990 levels by 2012, can sell its excess quota to high polluters. Once Russia ratifies, the Protocol will come into force in 90 days.

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David King, Chief Scientific Adviser to the British government, has cited the accelerated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over the past two years as a clear sign that the world must take urgent action on the climate problem. "This is taking us up into relatively dangerous levels of carbon dioxide for our planet", he said during the annual Greenpeace Business Lecture.

David King, though, agrees with experts who counsel caution in interpreting the recent data. "I don't think an increase of 2 ppm for two years in a row is highly significant - there are climatic perturbations that can make this occur", said David J Hofmann of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "But", he continued, "the absence of a known climatic event does make these years unusual". Peter Cox, of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in the United Kingdom, told the BBC that the increase was not uniform across the globe - Europe's very hot summer last year and a larger than usual number of forest fires could have killed off vegetation and increased carbon releases from the soil. CSIRO researchers in Australia reported in March that they had detected the same behaviour at Southern Hemisphere sites They reckon that human activity is, in fact, a likely source of the increase as a similar trend had not affected trace gases, such as methane, linked to wildfires.

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Researchers have found that warming of the Arctic may result in positive feedback as more carbon dioxide is released from the tundra than previously expected. Low temperatures and water saturation currently trap large amounts of carbon in the polar soils. "The rise in temperature would release more of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the air than plants are capable of taking in", said Michelle Mack, an ecologist at the University of Florida at Gainsville in the United States. This conclusion was reached on the basis of a 20-year experiment at the Arctic Long-term Ecological Research site near Toolik Lake, Alaska.

Drew Shindell and Gavin Schmidt of Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center in New York in the United States have concluded that the Antarctic is set to warm over the next 50 years, despite recent cooling. The scientists' computer model shows that the combined effect of low ozone levels and increasing greenhouse gases has been a shift in the Antarctic circulation (the Southern Annular Mode), isolating cold air in the polar interior. With ozone levels set to recover due to control of ozone-depleting chemicals, "global warming is likely to dominate future trends", says Shindell.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has sent the Kyoto Protocol to the State Duma for approval. Ratification is near certain as the main pro-Kremlin party has a substantial majority. The Duma will debate ratification on October 22nd. Once Russia ratifies, the Protocol will come into force in 90 days.

The decision to ratify seems to have been triggered by European Union support for Russian membership of the World Trade Organization, and visa-free travel for Russian citizens within the European Union. The United States continues to reject the Protocol, despite Russia's new commitment. Australian Prime Minister John Howard said that his nation would meet its emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol, but would not ratify the agreement.

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Small island states warned the United Nations General Assembly in September that the threat of climate change is as urgent as the fight against terrorism. "We have demonstrated remarkable solidarity in the fight against global terrorism," said Kiribati President Anote Tong. "Can we not demonstrate the same in the fight against climate change and sea level rise?" Ralph Gonsalves, Prime Minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines, warned that climate change, "if unchecked, could lead in this century to a global human and economic calamity."

Progress in implementing the Barbados Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States will be reviewed at an international meeting in Mauritius, January 10-14th 2005. Agreement has yet to be reached on issues such as climate change, trade relations, market access, renewable energy sources and finance.

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Researchers have linked recent drought in the western United States to climate warming in a study of the past record of aridity and causal mechanisms such as regional climate change. "If warming over the tropical Pacific Ocean promotes drought over the western US, this is a potential problem for the future in a world that is increasingly subjected to global warming," said Ed Cook of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University.

The study was based on proxy climate records, such as tree-ring data, used to reconstruct a long-term record of drought and on modelling studies. The recent four-year drought in the western US "pales in comparison with some of the earlier droughts we see," concludes David Meko of the Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona.

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• Reconstructed drought data

The Russian Cabinet has approved ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, removing the final obstacle in the way of implementation of this phase of the climate treaty. "Russia's green light will allow the climate train to leave the station so we can really begin addressing the biggest threat to the planet and its people," proclaimed Klaus Toepfer, UN Environment Programme chief.

While President Putin has ordered his government to move ahead with ratification of the Protocol, there remains opposition. The Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov warned of a "difficult debate" when the issue comes before the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, before the end of the year. With a majority of Putin loyalists in the Duma, though, the house will likely follow the President's lead.

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The United States continues to reject the Kyoto Protocol, despite Russia's new commitment to ratification. US spokesperson Richard Boucher said that the "position on the Kyoto Protocol has not changed" but noted that "it was up to other nations to independently evaluate whether ratification is in their national interest." He continued that President Bush has "reaffirmed our commitment" to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard said that his nation would meet its emissions targets under the Kyoto Protocol, but would not ratify the agreement. "The difficulty by ratifying, through ratifying under the present conditions, is that countries like China and Brazil and Indonesia would not be subject to the emissions targets we'd be subject to," he said. He feared that Australia would be disadvantaged as it would be more attractive for industry to invest in these countries and "that would take investment and also jobs out of our country."

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Californian regulators have adopted the world's tightest controls on automobile emissions to cut releases of greenhouse gases. Manufacturers will be required to limit emissions through technological advances, such as improvements in air conditioners, more efficient transmissions and reduced engine size. Terry Tamminen, environmental protection secretary, said that California should do its part to reduce emissions. "Our contribution, no matter how large or small, makes a difference."

During the first stage, from 2009 through 2012, emissions should be reduced by about 25 percent for cars and light trucks and by about 18 percent for larger trucks and sport-utility vehicles. From 2016, the regulations would require emissions to be cut by up to 34 percent for cars and light trucks and by 25 percent for larger vehicles. The automobile industry trade group, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, may challenge the new regulations in court. It is not convinced the measures are worth the cost. "We see no apparent health benefit at great cost to California consumers," said spokesperson Gloria J Bergquist.

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• New Rules Project
• Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers

President Putin has ordered his government to move ahead with ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. The government recently submitted the ratification documents for ministerial approval and ratification has now been approved by the Russian Cabinet. "This is a hugely important step," commented Alexei Kokorin, head of the World Wildlife Fund in Russia.

Ratification does not have total support. The Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov considers the treaty "ineffective, unfair, and disadvantageous", according to recent reports. Economic adviser Andrei Illarionov has argued that, without the involvement of the United States, there will be no market for carbon, reducing the attractiveness of the deal to Russia. The final decision will be taken by the State Duma, the lower house of parliament. With a majority of Putin loyalists in the Duma, the house will likely follow the President's lead. European Union support of Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization is said to have ensured the decision to approve.

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It is feared that Tropical Storm Jeanne has killed over 2,000 people in Haiti. It struck over the weekend of September 18/19th. Flooding and landslides were responsible for the majority of the deaths, with the town of Gonaives hardest hit. The flooding was made worse by the extensive deforestation in the region. Valleys were unable to hold back the rainwater.

It is proving difficult to get aid and assistance into the region and disease threatens. "Trucking clean water into Gonaives is a logistical nightmare," according to Abby Maxman of CARE. Francoise Gruloos of the UN Children's Fund warned that "it's a critical situation in terms of epidemics, because of the bodies still in the streets, because people are drinking dirty water and scores are getting injuries from debris huge cuts that are getting infected." Reaching hurricane status, Jeanne moved on to strike the Bahamas and Florida the following weekend. Four hurricanes have now made landfall in Florida this season, a record not matched for over 100 years. Jeanne hit the Treasure Coast, the same area as Hurricane Frances three weeks ago.

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The area covered by China's glaciers has shrunk by over five per cent since the 1960s, according to a new inventory. Yao Tandong, director of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, warns that as much as 64 per cent of China's glaciers may disappear by the end of the 2050s. While glacier melting may mean more water for the inhabitants of the neighbouring regions in the short-term, the end-result will be worsening desertification.

The collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 has speeded up the flow of glaciers into the Weddell Sea, according to studies by US scientists. "If anyone was waiting to find out whether Antarctica would respond quickly to climate warming, I think the answer is yes," said Theodore Scambos from the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado. The researchers have used imagery from American, Canadian and European satellites.

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• Larsen B, Science Daily
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• Larsen B, NSIDC

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has called on the Group of Eight (G8) nations to adopt a common position to deal with the climate problem. "There's no doubt in my mind that the time to act is now," he said.

Tony Blair has three goals in mind for the G8:

• agreement on the basic science of climate change and the threat it poses;
• agreement on a process to speed up the science, technology and other measures needed to meet the threat; and,
• engagement with countries such as India and China on how to meet their growing energy needs sustainably and on adaptive measures.

The rich nations must "lead the way," he concluded. The next G8 summit will be held in Britain in July 2005.

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• Text of speech

Tropical Storm Jeanne has killed over 1,100 people in Haiti. It struck over the weekend of September 18/19th. Over 1,000 people remain missing. Flooding and landslides were responsible for the majority of the deaths, with the town of Gonaives hardest hit. Disease threatens and it is proving difficult to get aid and assistance into the region. Over the previous days, seven people lost their lives in the neighbouring Dominican Republic and three in Puerto Rico as Jeanne passed over these countries.

Thirty eight people died as Hurricane Ivan struck the Gulf Coast of the United States over the previous weekend, with winds at 130 mph, then moved inland. The damage was less than expected over much of the region, but Florida's Panhandle was hard-hit. Hurricane Ivan had previously killed 70 people in the Caribbean, passing over Grenada, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before grazing Cuba.

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Climate change could reduce China's yield of rice, wheat and maize by up to 37 per cent over the next 20 to 80 years, according to a recent report sponsored by the Chinese and British governments. Cotton yields might increase by 40 per cent over the same period.

Britain's environment minister Elliot Morley concluded that "unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, climate change could seriously affect agricultural production in China." The study was conducted by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology and Britain's Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. It was based on a set of emissions scenarios, which drove climate and agricultural models. A second collaborative phase will begin in 2005.

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Japan has been hit by a record number of typhoons this season. The numbers making landfall on the Japanese archipelago are the highest since 1951 when statistics began to be collected. Higher water temperatures around the Philippines have meant more storms have formed and warmer water near Japan has maintained their energy. Typhoon Songda struck Japan earlier in the week ending September 12th.

China is still recovering from floods and landslides resulting from violent storms the same week. The death toll in the southwest stands at 164. "There are 2,327 people who have been injured or are sick," according to He Lingyun of the Chongqing disaster relief office. "The death toll may rise further." Meanwhile, Grenada, Jamaica and the Cayman isles are recovering from the devastation caused by Hurricane Ivan, which continues to wreak havoc in the Caribbean.

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Australia and Japan are collaborating on a near zero-emission coal-fired plant for producing electricity. The approach is based on capturing and storing carbon dioxide after what is known as oxy-fuel combustion, replacing air with pure oxygen in the generating process. The technology could be fitted to existing power stations.

"Technologies like oxy-fuel combustion and carbon capture and geological storage will be crucial for reducing emissions in coming decades, along with increased use of renewables and improved energy efficiency," according to Mark O'Neill, executive director of the Australian Coal Association. The project is backed by the Queensland state government and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries, with support from the Center for Coal Utilization in Japan and the University of Newcastle and other Australian partners.

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Energy demand could double or even triple by 2050, according to a report by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD). The study, Facts and Trends to 2050: Energy and Climate Change, is based on the experiences of a cross-section of industry leaders. The aim of the report is to stimulate forward-thinking and action on the part of the business community.

The report advocates improved energy efficiency, diversity and technological development as means by which the developing countries can achieve the living standards of the industrialized world. In launching the report, Björn Stigson, WBCSD President, noted that "a reduction in growth is not an acceptable path to a lower carbon world. We need a decoupling of the current direct link between standards of living and energy consumption."

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Mount Everest is losing height as a result of global warming, according to a recent survey. The mountain shrank by 1.3 metres in the 33 years to 1999, it was reported at an international conference in Lhasa in the Tibet Autonomous Region.

Yao Tandong, director of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, blamed consolidation of glaciers for the loss of height and warned that the change in climate is also affecting water availability at the oases of western China. It is estimated that close to 600 billion cubic metres of water have been lost since the 1950s.

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• China Internet Information Center
• Panorama, panoramas.dk
• Climate change and the Dolomites (video report), BBC

Scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany, have reported a rapid warming of the waters of the Arctic Ocean this year. The sampling took place in the Fram Strait, which lies between Greenland and Spitzbergen. The warming has been accompanied by a retreat of the ice edge in this sector of the Arctic.

The West Spitzbergen Current, which carries warm water from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic, has been warming steadily since the 1990s, but this year's rise, with temperatures up to 0.6 degrees Celsius higher than in 1993